163
FXUS63 KDTX 081949
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9AM THURSDAY FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DISCUSSION
PROTOTYPICAL, COOL, AUTUMN CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DIFFERENTIAL COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIDLEVEL STATIC STABILITY WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN FLAT, LOW COVERAGE DIURNAL CUMULUS. FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
HURON. MULTIPLE GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
DIRECTION HOLDING ON THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
WARMER WIND OFF OF THE WATER IN ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF SOME
LAKE CLOUD. BASED OFF OF NBM-CONUS DATA AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 37 DEGREES, WENT AHEAD AND DECIDED FOR
FROST ADVISORIES FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EXCEPT WAYNE
COUNTY (NBM PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 37 IS AT 8% FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTY, 13% NORTHVILLE TO PLYMOUTH). OFF OF A COLD START, HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES, SOME 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL RUNS, INCLUDING THE 08.12Z CONTROL RUN OF
THE ECMWF, DIRECTS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS THEN PREDICTS THE CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD AS A BLOCKING RIDGE RAPIDLY
ORGANIZES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THROUGH QUEBEC. LATEST EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE DATA WITH EC-AIFS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE CARRYING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EASTWARD INTO
CANADA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.
BEST PROXY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE WHEN
500MB TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE -20 TO -23C RANGE. HOWEVER, SLOWER
TIMING AND A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
LIMIT COVERAGE. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONTROL RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE DATA. FOR DTW, THE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS AT 12Z SUNDAY IS BETWEEN
0.1 AND 0.4 OF AN INCH.
AGGRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECASTED TO BUILD BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT RESULTING IN A STEADY REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS AND
SUBSEQUENT WAVES GOING INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA.
SAID LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING RENEWED SHOWER AND WATERSPOUT CHANCES HOWEVER WINDS REMAIN
MORE MODEST, GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
AVIATION...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LAKE MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS
MAINLY KPTK TO THE METRO TERMINALS, BRINGING SCT-BKN CU OF 4-5KFT TO
THE REGION. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, WITH SOME SPORADIC GUST
POTENTIAL TO AROUND 18 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER
THE STATE, WHICH WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....AM
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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