604
FXUS63 KDTX 030501
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION IN THE
LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN FAVORED TOWARDS NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION
A 5 TO 10 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND AND VFR SKIES WILL START THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEFORE THAT COLD FRONT ARRIVES, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BRING LLWS CONCERNS STARTING AROUND 08Z THIS MORNING. THE MAIN AREA
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MBS TOWARD
09-10Z AND CLEARING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 14-15Z.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS FNT AND MBS WITH LESSER
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN METRO TERMINALS, SO WILL GO WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR PTK NORTH AND MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN AROUND 12-
13Z FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE IN POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 30
KNOT, WHICH BEGIN TO EASE DURING THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET BY 10-12Z THIS MORNING. LOW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOW TO MODERATE FOR CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
DISCUSSION...
THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 160 KNOT JET RACING ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE DEVIATED LITTLE IN THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS
HAVING A STACKED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAWING SOME LEAD ENERGY
FROM THE JET NORTHWARD BEFORE THE NOSE OF THE JET BARRELS INTO LOWER
MI. THIS WILL PUSH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
SE MI LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH A VERY NARROW WARM SECTOR JUST
PRECEDING IT. THIS SETUP WILL OFFER A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN OVER THE
AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO
EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER GIVING CREDIT TO A
RIBBON OF STRONG FGEN, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET. WE'VE SEEN IT TOO MANY TIMES WHERE THE LEAD EDGE OF THE THETA E
GRADIENT AND FGEN IS ABLE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS EVEN UNDER THE
BACKDROP OF DRIER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE.
A STRONG, BUT WEAKENING, 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTIES
MIXING TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MIXING
DEPTHS INCREASE WHICH WILL TAP INTO SOME OF THE INCREASE WESTERLY
FLOW WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS. LOCAL PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS
SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR SURFACE GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH AND NATIONAL
HIRES PROBS MOSTLY STAY BELOW 35 MPH AS WELL. COULD SEE A SITUATION
WHERE THE INITIAL POP OF WIND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 35-
40 MPH BEFORE SETTLING MORE AROUND 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THUMB WITH THE INCREASED WINDS OFF SAGINAW BAY COMING ASHORE.
LONGWAVE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT LOCALLY MID WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SLIDING OVER THE REGION BRINGING QUIET WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THE
LOW AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH WITH THE NEXT TROUGH COMING EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A WEAKER JET AROUND 130 KNOTS DRIVING THE
SYSTEM, THE OVERALL LOOK TO THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/MONDAY
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH LOWER MI PRESENTING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF TONIGHT'S SYSTEM OFFERING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER RIDGE ON THURSDAY A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL LOOK TO TARGET THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...
A DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT, INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON,
BEFORE INCREASING THROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 35 KNOT GALES. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER WEST-NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WHERE IMPROVED MIXING DEPTHS WILL SUSTAIN
GALE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. THE FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES FOR GUSTS TO PEAK
AROUND 40 KNOTS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. A GALE
WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY, BRINGING RESPITE
FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY , BRINGING BACK
ELEVATED WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ442-443.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-441-462>464.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......DRK
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