115
FXUS63 KDTX 040500
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1200 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE ON TODAY.
- WARMER WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN DRY AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY.
- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND A STARK COOLING
TREND.
AVIATION
LLJ WINDS REMAIN STRONG AS SURFACE STABILITY HAS DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT RESULTING IN LLWS CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS OR SO UNTIL LLJ WINDS EASE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EDGES INTO THE AREA. VFR SKIES HOLD THROUGH TODAY AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS HOLDING
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WSW FROM 240-270 DEGREES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL EASE TOWARDS 00Z
THIS EVENING WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.
FOR DTW/D21 CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED INTO LAKE ERIE AND CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
FEATURES A BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR (SUB-0C AT 850 MB) WITH
DECREASING GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. STRONG FLOW ABOVE 2 KFT
(40+ KNOTS) LINGERS AND VEERS WNW, BUT SURFACE GUSTINESS WANES
QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
SEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK, SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR METRO DETROIT.
DYNAMIC ANTICYLONIC FLOW BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY BENEATH
THE EXITING UNIFIED JET. 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HOLDS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, SPINNING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS RESULTS IN A
LATE-DAY LOCAL SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT. AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS APPEAR
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH. THE NEXT WAVE IN THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
POTENTIAL AMIDST FAVORABLE CVA AND FRONTOGENESIS, SUPPORTING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TRI-
CITIES AND THUMB REGIONS, BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY STILL
SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 10 KFT LIMITS
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS FOR ANYTHING BEYOND GUSTY SHOWERS. MIXING INTO 35-
45 KNOT FLOW BELOW 5 KFT SHOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF 30+ MPH GUSTS
WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ASSUMING IT MOVES
THROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME MIXING. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE ON WINDS IS
PROBABLY TOO LOW.
SEASONABLE AND DRY THURSDAY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY ROLLS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WAVE TRAIN MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THREE DISTINCT WAVES AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION (RAIN), THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY
LIQUID, AND THE FINAL WAVE COULD YIELD SOME FRACTION OF FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOW A RESPECTIVE DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL READINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C BECOME
WIDESPREAD PER THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF, BUT THE COLD ADVECTION SIGNAL
IS LESS PRONOUNCED IN THE GEM DATA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A ROBUST
SYSTEM RESPONSE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ELEVATED
MIXING DEPTHS, ALLOWING GUSTS TO GALES TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON. A GALE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT AS GUST POTENTIAL STAYS SHY OF GALE
THRESHOLDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL
BRING RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT
LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
RETURN FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL RAMP UP COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE HURON, BOOSTING MIXING DEPTHS AS OVER LAKE
STABILITY WANES. THIS WILL BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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