355
FXUS63 KDTX 041722
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1222 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY.
- WARMER EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER THE NOON HOUR WEDNESDAY WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AND A STARK COOLING TREND.
AVIATION
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT COMPACT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY AND ASSIST THE TRANSPORT OF
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AIRSPACE TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
WILL MIX AND LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE DEPTH IS RATHER LIMITED, SO ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY AND BECOME GUSTY - GUSTS AROUND 25-KTS PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT. RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD
FRONT - ESTABLISHING A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND (GUSTS EXCEEDING 30-
KTS) FROM THE NORTHWEST, AS THE COLD AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION.
FOR DTW...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL POOL IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THUS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A MVFR
CLOUD DECK. ADDITIONALLY, THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS
OF 30-KTS FROM THE NW, BRINGING CROSSWIND OPERATIONS IN PLAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000-FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
* MEDIUM FOR EXCESSIVE CROSSWIND GUSTS AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HIGH INDEX FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
HIGH PERIODICITY OF SHORTWAVES IS ANTICIPATED WITH SHORTER DURATION
WEATHER EVENTS. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN.
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE BASED RIDGING HAS EXPANDED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
TODAY IN THE 6.0 TO 15.0 KFT AGL LAYER. WHILE MODELED DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT AS EXPLICIT IN THE 3.0 TO 8.0 KFT AGL LAYER,
IT IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THE SIGNAL FOR BOTH DRYING AND WARMING IN
THAT LAYER. PLEASANT EARLY NOVEMBER WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S. JUST A MODEST WEST
WIND.
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE/CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTER OUT OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST MORE OF THE
HEIGHT FALL BULLSEYE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WHILE DO
NOT FEEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO A BIG INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (NO FRONTAL STRUCTURES TO SPEAK OF), IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ABRUPT HEIGHT RISES WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL A BIT OF PROJECTING ON WHAT THE
WIND FORECAST COULD BECOME AS THE MODELS (NAM) REMAINS SUSPICIOUSLY
MOIST IN THE LOW BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BELIEVING THE
LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE THAT LOW. WITH THAT SAID, GUIDANCE REMAINS
EXTREMELY BEARISH ON THIS SETUP WITH THE NBM AT LESS THAN A 15%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH AND EXCEED 35 MPH IN METRO DETROIT.
50TH PERCENTILE OF NBM 10M GUST QMD FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS
LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. THE GRIDDED FORECAST REMAINS SUBDUED AT THE
MOMENT. THE OTHER ITEM TO THINK ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
COULD RESULT IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUXING EVEN IF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BRING A QUIET PERIOD THURSDAY. COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES COLDER, READINGS AROUND 50
DEGREES. FAST MOVING AND PHASED SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERMAL
STRUCTURES APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAINFALL
FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE REASON FOR THIS LOW CONFIDENCE IS
THAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF A VERY PHASED SPLIT
STREAM KEYING OFF A DEEP POLAR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT THE MODELS CAN GET THE
TIMING RIGHT FOR ANY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. QUITE THE DANCE GOING ON WITH THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS AROUND THE PIVOTING PLANETARY VORTICITY ANOMALY.
D(PROG)/D(T) FROM 24 HOURS AGO SUGGESTS A FASTER TIMING TO THE MAIN
LOW EJECTION THIS WEEKEND. WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE, A
FASTER EJECTION OF THE MAIN LOW WILL RESULT IN LESS POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW OUTSIDE OF TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING,
SETTLING AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE NEXT LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON WITHIN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF LAKE HURON BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 03Z THURSDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ361>363-441-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LHZ421-442-443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....MANN
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB
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