314
FXUS63 KDTX 041955
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
255 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TOMORROW WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY -
MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MONDAY AND LOWS
DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
DISCUSSION
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, WITH THE
12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATING A PW VALUE OF 0.26 INCHES. SURFACE DEW
PTS ARE ALSO IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A STRONG WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THEN ENSUES AHEAD OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL PEAK AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH 5-5.5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRESENT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH THIRD OF THE
CWA, CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN/CENTRAL LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FORECAST. THE RATE
OF THE LOW'S DEEPENING WILL BE CRITICAL IN OUR WIND GUST POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY 6 HR RISE/FALL COUPLET AROUND 20
MB IS EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
OF AROUND 45 MPH STILL IN PLAY, ESPECIALLY IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
THIS IS AIDED BY THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST CAPE
GENERATED WITH THE GOOD COLD ADVECTION, AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER INTO
THE NEGATIVE MID SINGLE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
GOOD UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ON THURSDAY ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
HIGH/SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, THOUGH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS,
ALLOWING YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY A
DESCENDING, STRONG POLAR 500 MB LOW MOVING OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER MOISTURE IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE (6+ G/KG OF
850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY) AND ESPECIALLY AREAL COVERAGE, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ANTICIPATED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEEKEND WEATHER AS WELL, AS THE ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AXIS TRENDS NEUTRAL, SWINGING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. INTERACTION WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT, AS PHASING/TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE CLUSTERING OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER (PER EURO
ENSEMBLES) LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES AND THE
RATE AT WHICH COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF AND
WHEN RAIN TURNS TO SNOW. EVEN IF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ENDS
WITHOUT A TURNOVER TO SNOW, ENOUGH COLD AIR (-10 C TO -12 C AT 850
MB) AND TROUGHING TO ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES,
WHICH HAS PROVIDED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, WILL DEPART EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE
DRAWING IN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW, BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUAL NORTHWEST WITHIN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS QUICKLY RAMP
UP JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING
THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO GALES ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE
HURON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE
HURON. IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO A GALE
WARNING AS GALE POTENTIAL HAS TRENDED UPWARDS WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE
ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE, BUT GALE HEADLINES ARE NOT UNDER
CONSIDERATION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE GALE POTENTIAL.
THIS CYCLICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHERE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL BACK IN ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING BRIEF RELIEF FROM WINDY CONDITIONS. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL NEARING 30 KNOTS, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR GALES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
AVIATION...
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT COMPACT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD SOUTHERLY AND ASSIST THE TRANSPORT OF
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AIRSPACE TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
WILL MIX AND LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE DEPTH IS RATHER LIMITED, SO ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY AND BECOME GUSTY - GUSTS AROUND 25-KTS PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT. RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD
FRONT - ESTABLISHING A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND (GUSTS EXCEEDING 30-
KTS) FROM THE NORTHWEST, AS THE COLD AIR FLOODS BACK INTO THE REGION.
FOR DTW...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL POOL IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THUS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A MVFR
CLOUD DECK. ADDITIONALLY, THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS
OF 30-KTS FROM THE NW, BRINGING CROSSWIND OPERATIONS IN PLAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000-FT WEDNESDAY MORNING
* MEDIUM FOR EXCESSIVE CROSSWIND GUSTS AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LHZ361>363-441-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LHZ421-442-443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page