524
FXUS63 KDTX 042306
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
606 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TOMORROW WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY -
MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MONDAY AND LOWS
DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
AVIATION
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS LAKE HURON BY
LATE WED MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION PRECEDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW END VFR AND SOME
MVFR BASED CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR BASED CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SE MI IN THE 18Z TO 19Z TIME FRAME,
ESPECIALLY FROM PTK NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF LIMITATION WITH RESPECT TO NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE GUSTINESS TO THE
SFC WINDS AS OPPOSED TO A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SITUATION. DEEPENING
OF THE POST FRONTAL MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WNW WIND GUSTS OVER
30 KNOTS WED AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...DAYTIME MIXING AND POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE CEILINGS BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000-FT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS TO EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, WITH THE
12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATING A PW VALUE OF 0.26 INCHES. SURFACE DEW
PTS ARE ALSO IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A STRONG WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THEN ENSUES AHEAD OF FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL PEAK AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH 5-5.5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRESENT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH THIRD OF THE
CWA, CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN/CENTRAL LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FORECAST. THE RATE
OF THE LOW'S DEEPENING WILL BE CRITICAL IN OUR WIND GUST POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY 6 HR RISE/FALL COUPLET AROUND 20
MB IS EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
OF AROUND 45 MPH STILL IN PLAY, ESPECIALLY IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP.
THIS IS AIDED BY THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST CAPE
GENERATED WITH THE GOOD COLD ADVECTION, AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER INTO
THE NEGATIVE MID SINGLE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
GOOD UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ON THURSDAY ALLOWS FOR SURFACE
HIGH/SUBSIDENCE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, THOUGH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS,
ALLOWING YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY A
DESCENDING, STRONG POLAR 500 MB LOW MOVING OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER MOISTURE IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE (6+ G/KG OF
850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY) AND ESPECIALLY AREAL COVERAGE, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ANTICIPATED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE COLD AIR WILL BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEEKEND WEATHER AS WELL, AS THE ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH AXIS TRENDS NEUTRAL, SWINGING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. INTERACTION WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE STILL
NEEDS TO BE SORTED OUT, AS PHASING/TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE CLUSTERING OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER (PER EURO
ENSEMBLES) LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES AND THE
RATE AT WHICH COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF AND
WHEN RAIN TURNS TO SNOW. EVEN IF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ENDS
WITHOUT A TURNOVER TO SNOW, ENOUGH COLD AIR (-10 C TO -12 C AT 850
MB) AND TROUGHING TO ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES,
WHICH HAS PROVIDED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, WILL DEPART EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEFORE
DRAWING IN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW, BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUAL NORTHWEST WITHIN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS QUICKLY RAMP
UP JUST AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING
THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO GALES ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE
HURON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE
HURON. IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO A GALE
WARNING AS GALE POTENTIAL HAS TRENDED UPWARDS WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE
ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE, BUT GALE HEADLINES ARE NOT UNDER
CONSIDERATION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE GALE POTENTIAL.
THIS CYCLICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHERE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL BACK IN ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING BRIEF RELIEF FROM WINDY CONDITIONS. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL NEARING 30 KNOTS, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR GALES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LHZ421-442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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