975
FXUS63 KDTX 050815
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY -
MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MONDAY AND LOWS
DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
DISCUSSION
FAST MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN SLIDING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES DEEPENING THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RESPONSE AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/CENTRAL
LAKE HURON. THIS TRACK FAVORS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD NORTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE REALLY ONLY OVER M-46 AND NORTH. MARGINALLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. THAT SAID, SYSTEM-RELATIVE STREAMLINES CONTAIN A LARGE
PARALLEL COMPONENT TO THE FRONTAL SLOPE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE THUMB.
THIS IN COMBINATION ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ADVECTION STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRY RESIDENT AIRMASS (SEE 05.00Z DTX SOUNDING) RESULTS
IN BOTH SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES STAYING QUITE LEAN. OVERALL
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WHILE
GENERATING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF QPF. THE MORE IMPACTFUL SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM INSTEAD ARE POTENTIAL WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-40KTS OF WSW FLOW DEVELOPING ATOP THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING THAT THEN WILL BE INCREASINGLY TAPPED INTO
THROUGH THE MID MORNING AS DIURNAL HEATING LIFTS MIXING HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 3KFT SUPPORTING SURFACE GUSTS REACHING AROUND 25-30MPH. A
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OCCURS ALONG/FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS COLD
ADVECTION STEEPENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NUDGES UP MIXING DEPTHS
TO 5-6KFT TAPPING INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER 40-45KT FLOW. PEAK GUSTS
LIKELY REACH 35-40MPH WITH 45MPH POTENTIAL MORE CONFINED TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WINDS QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS TRAILING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. INFLUENCE OF SAID HIGH IS BRIEF HOWEVER AS IT QUICKLY
SLIDES EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE
CROSSING THE CONUS. THIS PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT SPURRING CYCLOGENSIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH EAST
OVER THE UP SETTING UP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO SE MI TO
START THE DAY FRIDAY. RESPECTABLE WAA LEADS TO LOCAL 850MB TEMPS
CLIMBING FROM -4C LATE THURSDAY TO +4-5C BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
THIS BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, THE QUICK ARRIVAL OF THE LEAD COLD
FRONT/SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING PREVENTS THE FULL REALIZATION OF THIS
WARMER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THEN SET TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY
MARKING THE LEAD MOST EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THIS COLD POOL, TIED TO A BROAD CLOSED
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
SEASON'S FIRST SNOWFLAKES.
ANOTHER, MORE POTENT, PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY
EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF MOVING PARTS IN THE EXACT SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE
OWING TO INTERACTION WITH THE HUDSON LOW DECREASING INHERIT
PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT. WORTH NOTING HOWEVER TRENDS AMONGST THE
00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FAMILIES HAVE BEGUN CONVERGING ON A
FAVORED TRACK OVER NORTHERN OHIO (BETWEEN TOLEDO AND COLUMBUS) WHICH
WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE MI
SUNDAY. MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR LEFT BEHIND FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AS WELL AS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC-ORIGINATING AIRMASS IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR FOR P-TYPE OVER THE AREA. PARENT
UPPER TROUGH THEN SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW -10C OFFERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES TO SEE SNOW AS LAKE
EFFECT DEVELOPS.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WIND SPEEDS AND GUST
POTENTIAL RAPIDLY RAMPS UP GIVEN THE IMPROVED MIXING DEPTHS AND
BOOST IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTS TO GALE WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS LAKE HURON
AND INTO THE SAGINAW BAY. ISOLATED GUST TO GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LAKE ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE IN THE AFTERNOON, JUST
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WILL PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
TO SEE GALE POTENTIAL LASTING LONGER THAN THE THREE HOUR THRESHOLD.
THIS CYCLICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL BACK IN
TOMORROW, BRINGING BRIEF RELIEF FROM WINDY CONDITIONS. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE RETURN OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL NEARING 30 KNOTS AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR GALES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
AVIATION...
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
MBS WHERE MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE HIGHER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO EASTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE FAIRLY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
THIS EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
35 TO 45 KNOTS ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER, A MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS. LLWS WILL TRANSITION TO
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH. DEEPENING OF THE POST FRONTAL MIXED
LAYER WILL RESULT IN WNW WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WED AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...DAYTIME MIXING AND POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS BELOW 5K FEET WEDNESDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000-FT WEDNESDAY.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS TO EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ361>363-462>464.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page