663
FXUS63 KDTX 052300
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
600 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE 30 MPH RANGE LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON BY SUNDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
STRENGTHENING POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. THE MOISTURE FLUX OFF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW LINGERING VFR BASED CLOUDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE THE GUSTINESS TO THE SFC
WINDS. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL FURTHER REDUCE THE
SURFACE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH THE WNW WIND DIRECTION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
EVENING, THERE WILL BE A STEADY DROP IN THE SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS AS
NIGHTTIME COOLING SET IN.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CONTINUED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS TO BE EXCEEDED AFTER 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
DISCUSSION...
A SPEEDY SHORT WAVE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES PULLED A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT BROUGHT A NARROW BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA HOWEVER THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WAS MILD AIR
CARRIED IN BY SW WIND GUSTING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MADE A RUN TOWARD 60 PRIOR TO THE NW WIND SHIFT.
READINGS FALL FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPS WIND GUSTS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. WIND AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT BOTH OF
WHICH CARRY TEMPERATURES DOWN TO LOWS AROUND 30 THURSDAY MORNING.
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE TODAY SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE IT
ENSURES DRY WEATHER FOR SE MI THURSDAY. TODAY'S FRONT ONLY DROPS
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BOOSTED
SLIGHTLY BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH A MIXTURE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
STREAMERS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
MILD AIR INBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. READINGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH IS NO
LONGER A GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO
LOWER MI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM FEEDS
OFF GULF MODIFIED AIR DISPLACED BY TODAY'S FRONT BUT ONLY INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND IS READILY AVAILABLE TO HELP FORM A SHARP THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE GOING FORECAST ON THE EXPECTATION OF A NEARLY SOLID BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH QPF AROUND 0.25 INCH UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THE
PATTERN EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.
A TRAILING MID LEVEL WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT BRING A STRAY
SHOWER FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WIND HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND. THE DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND OCCURS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GAINING ATTENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING
SNOW POTENTIAL OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL OUTPUT
ON THIS SYSTEM CARRIES THE USUAL WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF
QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. ENSEMBLE DMEAN/DT SHOW PREDICTABILITY
HOVERING/CONVERGING AROUND AN OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH
VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. A NOTE OF CAUTION ON
SOLUTIONS WITH HIGHER QPF IS THAT THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT DISPLACES
GULF MODIFIED AIR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL STATES. THIS
IS NOT TO SAY IT CAN'T MAKE IT BACK THIS FAR NORTH BUT IS NO DOUBT A
HINGE POINT FOR THE SE MI FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF A MORE
OPEN/FASTER/FARTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW TRACK VERIFIES VS A
CLOSED/SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH TRACK. THE LATTER IS A STRONGER SOLUTION
THAT HAS POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE FORCING CAPABLE OF HIGHER RATES OF
QPF/SNOW OVER SE MI. WHILE THESE DETAILS ARE IN QUESTION, A HARSH
WINTER TEMPERATURE REMINDER CARRIES MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE GIVEN
THE LARGER SCALE 500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
SUPPLYING AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO IS QUICKLY TRACKING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SENDING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ST. CLAIR
AND LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION
MAINTAINS GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND THAT PEAKS IN MAGNITUDE THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN GUSTS TO LOWER-END GALES
ACROSS LAKE HURON WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM. GUSTINESS THEN SUBSIDES OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND
EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT LOW IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE MORE
STABLE AND LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 TO 30 KT.
PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR LATE. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WIND IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 20 TO 25 KT.
A THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
STRENGTH AND TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SUNDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......TF
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