043
FXUS63 KDTX 122354
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE COLDEST PERIOD
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO
RANGE BETWEEN -15F TO -10F BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW OVERNIGHT
- HIGH-END CHANCES (50-60%) FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF-INCH. A SECOND
CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM I- 94
SOUTH. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS THEN FORECASTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, AS
TEMPS LIKELY PUSH AOA 40 DEGREES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
RAIN.
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BRINGS GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND
LOW VFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF MVFR
CEILINGS FOCUSED ACROSS FNT AND MBS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN PUSHING
SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A GREATER FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS WELL WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT LIKELY
COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z WITH A POST FRONTAL GUSTY WEST WIND
DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIRMASS LIKELY KEEPS
LAKE MICHIGAN CLOUDS ACTIVATED AND MAINTAIN PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.
WEAK FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE TO HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... A STRATUS DECK HAS
FILLED BACK IN ACROSS SE MI WHICH WILL SUSTAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UNDER AN ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. OVERNIGHT, A STRONG
PV ANOMALY NOW EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT OVER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. BOTH THE SHALLOW MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT UP THROUGH 750MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM TRACE
AMOUNTS, UP TO A HALF-INCH, WITH SNOW CHANCES ENDING BY 12Z.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL MAINTAIN A SHALLOW BUT STARK
MIXING LAYER WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
MPH. COLD TEMPERATURES IN CONJUNCTION WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 DEGREES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
SE MI BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE SHALLOW BUT STRONG LLLR AND SUFFICIENT 0-1KM MOISTURE, BUT
MOISTURE DEPTHS ARE TOO SHALLOW TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND I-94 AND LOCATIONS SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THIS FEATURE HAS LOW-
END CHANCES TO CLIP SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHICH CAN BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF-INCH. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL HOLD POP
VALUES TO 20% UP AROUND THE I-94, INCREASING TO 50% NEAR THE BORDER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL REINFORCE THIS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
INTRUSION. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
NORMAL, ENSEMBLE V-WIND ANOMALIES HIGHLIGHT THE RARITY OF A
SUSTAINED DUE-NORTHERLY FETCH FOR MID-DECEMBER, MAXIMIZING COLD AIR
TRANSPORT. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR -20C AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES TO -26C BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND
THE 0 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -15F
TO -10F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR
PARTS OR ALL OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CAPPED IN THE 20S FOR A HIGH ON SUNDAY, RETURNING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVERNIGHT, WITH A RETURN BACK INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY.
OVERALL, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN ROUGHLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
A PACIFIC WAVE WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE BY THE MIDWEEK WHICH WILL DEEPEN
EAST OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE ARRIVING ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY. FLOW
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY AND LIKELY ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH THURSDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK AOA 40 DEGREES. WHILE NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MODERATE CONVERGENCE
HIGHLIGHTING MODERATE IVT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT TIED TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A BOOST TO THE WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE'LL STAY BELOW 35 KNOT GALES BUT THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PERIOD OF WIND AND WAVES. THE COLD AIRMASS
AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS AND
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK
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