685
FXUS63 KDTX 131101
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
601 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE COLDEST
PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHEN ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AT ZERO TO 5F ABOVE. EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO
RANGE BETWEEN -15F TO -10F BY SUNDAY MORNING.
-LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN THUMB SHORELINE
SUNDAY.
- A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS THEN FORECASTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY NEXT WEEK,
AS TEMPS LIKELY PUSH AOA 40 DEGREES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
A NARROW FINELINE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW DEVELOPED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT
AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THATS ANY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW RATE HAS PASSED EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO.
ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHIFT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE ALIGNED PARALLEL
TO THE MEAN FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER HOUR
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND ANY REMAINING
CONVERGENCE SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. COHERENT SHORTWAVE MAXIMUM IS
FORECASTED TO EJECT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THE
TRUE POLAR TROUGH/LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD
PROVIDE SEEDING INTO A LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE
TO 4.5 KFT AGL THAT WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WITH RESPECT TO ICE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF SHORTWAVE,
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW AND HYDROMETEORS TO DEVELOP AT THE DETROIT
TERMINALS SOMETIME BETWEEN 19-23Z. DID INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT DTW.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MVFR TRANSITIONING TO VFR TONIGHT.
FOR DTW...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE HERE AT TAF TIME, BUT THE BETTER
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MISSING DTW TO THE NORTHEAST. FAVORABLE
MICROPHYSIC SETUP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 19-23Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC
FRONT PASSING THROUGH, CLEARING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. JET STREAK/WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SNOW SHIELD TO MOSTLY PASS
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-94 TO THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER WILL LIKELY GET GLANCED BY SOME HIGHER BASED
FORCING/FGEN/MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OR A LOW LEVEL STREAMER
COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN, AND WOULD EXPECTED A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER. OTHERWISE, ARCTIC AIR STREAMING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER
STORY. 00Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS RAOB INDICATED AN 850 MB TEMP OF -25
C, WHILE PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO CAME IN WITH -26 C. SOME MODIFICATION
EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT 850
MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -22 C (PER 00Z NAM/REGIONAL GEM) OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SEEMS REASONABLE TONIGHT. WITH UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT, SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING, BUT
PASSING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL COUNTING ON
SURFACE WINDS TO NOT FULLY DECOUPLE TO KEEP MINS IN THE ZERO TO 5
DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH,
THAT WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO REACH 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
STILL MARGINAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. DID TAKE A LOOK AT THE
RECORD LOWS FOR DECEMBER 14TH, AND FLINT'S DAILY RECORD LOW OF ZERO
(1944) SEEMS TO BE IN JEOPARDY, AS THE EURO ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED
AROUND THAT MARK.
STILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT EASTERN
THUMB SHORELINE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON. BULK OF THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS STILL KEEP THE MULTI-BANDS
MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ALONG THE SHORELINE IS POSSIBLE AT THE VERY LEAST.
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES SWINGS THROUGH LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
BEST FORCING TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON,
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.
BIG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING TO AT LEAST 558 DAM WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW, SENDING TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY IN THE
40S ON THURSDAY. RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS WELL AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT
LEAST 30-40 MPH.
MARINE...
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE TO WIND SPEED DUE TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BOOST TO THE WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BASIN. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL STAY BELOW 35
KNOT GALES BUT THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
PERIOD OF WIND AND WAVES. THE COLD AIRMASS AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS AND FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14TH.
DETROIT: -1 DEGREES (SET IN 1914)
FLINT: 0 DEGREES (SET IN 1944)
SAGINAW: -7 DEGREES (SET IN 1917)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DRK
CLIMATE......SF
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