259
FXUS63 KDTX 141958
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
258 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY BRINGS A TRACE TO 0.5
INCHES OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I-96. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING 1 INCH
OF SNOW IS UP IN THE THUMB AREA.
- A WARMUP IS FORECASTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY AND 40S ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH, AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPED ALONG A POCKET OF 850MB WAA. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND
CANADIAN RADAR DATA SHOW THE SINGLE DOMINANT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND
TRANSITIONING INTO A MULTI-BAND SETUP. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND IS
WOBBLING WEST-EAST VERY CLOSE THE HURON COUNTY SHORELINE. THUS IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MAY PERIODICALLY MOVE ONSHORE
IN HURON COUNTY. HOWEVER, AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THIS
WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AS FLOW BEGINS TO BACK WESTERLY.
AS CLOUD COVER THINS THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT, CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM TO AROUND 12-15 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURE
WARM, WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH BROAD 800-700MB WAA INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, AND THEN THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF, LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY-MID MORNING MONDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND OF THE FLUFFIER
CHARACTERISTIC. BASED ON PROBABILITY FIELDS, A WIDESPREAD TRACE TO
0.5 INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AREAS
UP NORTH THE THUMB HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL (50% CHANCE) FOR
SEEING 1 INCH OF SNOW.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THIS WILL
FAVOR A GRADUAL WARM UP AND A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WHILE WE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO MANAGE,
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DOESN'T APPEAR IT WILL
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON THE STRONG SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE A TRANSITION BACK
OVER TO A COLDER AIR MASS AND SNOW SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SYSTEM EXITS INTO
CANADA. PROBABILITY FIELDS THAT FAR OUR SHOW A MEDIUM TO HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES OF QPF, MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL AS
RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS ABOVE
FREEZING, AND RAIN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MELTING OF THE EARLY-
SEASON SNOWPACK. COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY,
WITH LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS MORE PRONE TO SEEING
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
MARINE
WE WILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GOING OVER THE WATERS
AS THE COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND PASSING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS PASS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO MONDAY WAS HELPING TO CREATE A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WITH A MARGINAL GALE SETUP ACROSS A
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. WINDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN AS HAVE THE
PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SO WILL BE CANCELING
THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST. WE STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH 30
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF GALES POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING AS WE BRIEFLY MIX DEEPER WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN
PLACE. HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO COVER THIS PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN ON TUESDAY WHICH AGAIN IS ALREADY ADVERTISING SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS
TO GALES TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANOTHER GALE WATCH AT THIS
TIME BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF WIND GUSTS REMAIN
UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
AVIATION...
AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BROKE OFF FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI
THIS MORNING AND HAS SLOWLY BEEN PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE INDICATES THIS SNOW HAS FINALLY
CLEARED MBS HOWEVER FNT AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR. SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN WEAKENING FURTHER SOUTH THEY'VE ADVANCED SO KEPT
THE DETROIT TERMINALS AT TEMPO MVFR FOR PERIODIC DROPS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, PEAKING 20-25KTS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. SOME DEGREE OF LOW LAKE CLOUD
LOOKS TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING FLOW FAVORS A TREND
TOWARD SCATTERING AND VFR.
FOR DTW... FLURRIES OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE AT
SEEING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF DROPPING VSBYS TOWARD
LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR. SNOW CHANCES EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, TRENDING TO LOW
TONIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....KDK
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