017
FXUS63 KDTX 150811
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
311 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW EARLY TO MID MORNING TODAY BRINGS A TRACE TO 0.5 INCHES
OF SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I 69. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING UP TO 1 INCH
OF SNOW IS IN THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION.
- A WARMUP IS FORECASTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY AND 40S ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
A PLUME OF SHALLOW, SUB 3.5 KFT AGL THETAE ADVECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS EVENING RESULTING IN LARGE FLAKE
FLURRIES. THE MOISTURE, WHICH LIKELY HAD LAKE MICHIGAN ORIGINS WAS
POOLED DIRECTLY BEHIND THE 850-700MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND WAS
THE INITIAL PHASE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY AND WARMING THAT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
EXIT REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ATTENDANT WEAK PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
MORNING AS BROAD RIDGING AND SUPERGEOSTROPHIC FLOW EXPANDS EASTWARD.
CHANGING CURVATURE TO THE JET IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE FOR WEAK SYNOPTIC
LIFT AND A WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECASTED VERTICAL PROFILE OF UVV CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SATURATION
AND LIFT WILL BE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN, UPWARDS OF 8.0 KFT AGL.
THE TENDENCY OF THE MODEL DATA FROM 24 HOURS AGO SUGGESTS THAT
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SHALLOW TODAY AS
DRYING WILL BE ACTIVELY OCCURING BETWEEN 12.0 AND 16.0 KFT AGL.
MODELED QPF IS LESS IN THE 12-18Z TIME WINDOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR MOST AREAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE THE THUMB WHERE LESS THAN ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE.
INTERESTINGLY, LOCAL TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FOR SITE PORT HOPE
SUGGESTS A NEAR 90% PROBABILITY FOR 0.5 INCH OF SNOW AND APPROXIMATE
40% CHANCE FOR AN INCH. NBM 5.0 OFFERS A 55% CHANCE TO MEASURE WITH
AN APPROXIMATE 25% FOR 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN THUMB. MUCH LESSER
PROBABILITIES EXIST TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING IN VICINITY OF PORT
HURON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDDED POP
FORECAST.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
FLOW EVOLVING MORE ZONAL AND THE HEIGHT PATTERN LESS AMPLIFIED THAT
WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. MODELS DO SHOW A BIG PUSH TO DEEPER
WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT HERE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS DATA SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS NORTHEAST
MICHIGAN LIKELY REQUIRING SOME ELEVATION. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO THE FREEZING MARK. AN INFLECTION AND CORRESPONDING JET
STREAK WILL SUPPORT A TROUGH STRUCTURE THROUGH MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING BUT PLAN VIEWS OF MOISTURE ON
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGESTS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OUT
OF KY/TN NORTHEASTWARD, STREAMLINING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE DGZ. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES AT 32/33F IN THE 10-13Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS VANTAGE POINT THAT GREATEST
DEFORMATION FORCING AND COLD CONVEYOR PROCESSES WITH MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CANADA, WELL NORTH OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARM RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT VERY WARM THERMAL PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 6.0
KFT AGL WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT 850MB OF A POSITIVE 5-6C. THE
MODEL TREND NOW SUGGESTS THAT STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE SYSTEM
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN (STILL BREEZY HOWEVER). THE MAIN REASON IS THAT
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE COULD VERIFY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
MUCH MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH STRUCTURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIONS THE COLD ADVECTION WITH
THE FRONT MAY COME IN TWO PIECES WITH THE TRUE COLD AIR AND BEST
NEAR SURFACE LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED TO THE WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT.
ADDITIONALLY, NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WITH HIGHS FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
MARINE
WE WILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ALONG WIT H A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THOUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENERIO REGARDING GALE POTENTIAL TODAY BUT COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED GUST TO GALE FORCE OR TWO BUT THE WINDOW LOOKS FAIRLY
NARROW LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THESE HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF LOWS PASS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY TO COVER THESE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY WHICH AGAIN IS ALREADY
ADVERTISING SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO GALES TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANOTHER GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IF WIND GUSTS REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
AVIATION...
MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO ENCROACH ON WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND. THESE CEILINGS MAY REACH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND ARE
MORE LIKELY AFFECT PTK TO MBS, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS
REACHING METRO CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAKES THAT LESS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY TO MID MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH NORTHERN
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR CEILINGS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL TO REACH METRO TERMINALS AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR DTW... LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LOWER CEILINGS REACHING METRO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL FOR A COUPLE HOURS SURROUNDING 12Z. ANY SNOWFALL WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT AND LEAD TO MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION AND ANY MVFR
CEILING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CIGS AOB 5000 FEET TODAY. MEDIUM THIS EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....AA
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