186
FXUS63 KDTX 050857
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE DECEMBER 29TH.
- READINGS DO SETTLE BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL IS GREATER TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON SCHEDULE TO CLIMB STEADILY THROUGH THE
40S MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LEADING BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT DELIVERED A RESPECTABLE BURST
OF SNOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT EVENT THAT LASTED 1-2 HRS NORTH OF
I-69 AND ABOUT 30 MINUTES TO THE SOUTH TOWARD M-59. ELEVATED
CONVECTION THEN FOLLOWED WITHIN THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WHICH PRODUCED SOME HIGH BASED AND LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON TOP OF THE NEW SNOW COVER. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXITING EASTWARD AND
HAS A STRONG FIELD OF SUBSIDENCE TRAILING THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS
STRIPPING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MI
DURING THE MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE REPORTS OF MOSTLY
FOG BUT WITH ACCOMPANYING RADAR REFLECTIVITY USUALLY INDICATIVE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. PROJECTING FORWARD THE SUPPORTING ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS POINTS TO ADDING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST
FOR A FEW HOURS IN SE MI NORTH OF M-46. THIS ALSO OCCURS ON TOP OF
FRESHLY SNOW COVERED SURFACES OR SURFACES ALREADY TREATED FOR SNOW
WHILE PRODUCING THE STANDARD TRACE OF GLAZE ON OBJECTS. A DIMINISHING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WITH THE INBOUND SURFACE LOW/OCCLUSION BRINGS
AN END TO L/ZL PRODUCTION AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
REACHABLE.
DRY BUT CLOUDY WEATHER TONIGHT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK
BELOW FREEZING TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, JUST AS PRECIPITATION
FROM YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES. A
CONSENSUS OF 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND ALSO DEEPENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. WARMER AIR IS ALREADY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THANKS TO TONIGHT'S SYSTEM PULLING
THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MARGINALLY
COLD BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI HARBORING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TOWARD THE TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB. HREF MEAN SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 6C WARM NOSE
AROUND 850 MB THAT HOLDS UP PRETTY WELL DURING TOP DOWN SATURATION
TO ENSURE A RAPID TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION
RATE INCREASES IN SE MI AFTER 12Z. THIS SETS UP A VERY NARROW TIME
WINDOW FOR LIGHT ICING FROM THE OHIO BORDER NORTHWARD TO I-96/696
UNTIL WARMER AIR SURGES IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING SW
LOWER MI. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW GENERALLY ALONG THE I-69
CORRIDOR LEADS TO A SLOWER WARMING TREND AND A LONGER PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS WILL BE
THE AREA TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL ICING SHOULD
BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PROVE TOO FAST IN WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN TRAILS THE MID LEVEL WAVE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO LOWER MI FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS BRINGS DRY WEATHER BUT JUST A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. MID TIME RANGE MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS
EXCHANGED FOR THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LONGER RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN
OF INCREASING/DEEPENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND AND A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHIFTS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. THE
RESULT IS THE NEXT STEP IN THE WARMING TREND FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES ARE FIRMLY ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT AND RISE THROUGH THE
40S DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BRINGS JUST RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE
CLIPPER SYSTEM VACATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, DRAWING ITS
BROAD AREA OF SNOW INTO ONTARIO BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GAIN A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL IN, ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THE NEXT
LOW IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS, LIFTING INTO THE REGION LATTER HALF OF
TUESDAY. CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 1000MB, BUT ITS
DIRECT TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN KEEPS WIND CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARMING TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN OR A
RAIN-SNOW MIX TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES HEADLINE-FREE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
AVIATION...
SOME INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL OFFER
PERIODIC DISRUPTION OF VISIBILITY AT MAINLY MBS/FNT. BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES PLAUSIBLE AT PTK AND THE DETROIT CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE, LOWER STRATUS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF CLEARING PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAVE PREDOMINANT VFR
WITH SIMPLY HIGHER BASED CLOUD AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. A GREATER EASTWARD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRING RENEWED MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR FURTHER REDUCTION IN CLOUD BASE, WITH A COMPONENT OF FOG
STARTING MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEST WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIP TYPE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....MR
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