150
FXUS63 KDTX 052037
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDLAND
AND BAY COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
- RISING TEMPERATURES BRING A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THAT TRENDS TO DRIZZLE BY THE EVENING.
- A CONTINUED WARMING TREND BRINGS HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PRECEDES THE NEXT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT, MAINTAINING BENIGN AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TOWARD 30 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. A
POCKET OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
INTO THE AREA WHICH MAINTAINS STRATUS AND BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR
MIST/FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MISSOURI BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER HEIGHT FALLS/PVA WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE LEADING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FGEN
RESULTING IN ONE OR MORE NARROW WEST-EAST BAND(S) OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM, DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 900 AND 750MB THAT MOISTENS AND COOLS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BUT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING FAVORING MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IF STRONGER FGEN FORCING DEVELOPS IN A FOCUSED
CORRIDOR, SOME SLEET OR SNOW WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE AT PRECIP ONSET BUT
THIS CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE. AS SURFACE TEMPS SIT TENUOUSLY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 32F WITH DEW POINT TEMPS LAGGING A FEW DEGREES LOWER,
A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE A GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE GLACIAL RIDGE AS WELL AS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB
WHERE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE. HREF AND REFS
FRAM GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGEST LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE FOR THESE
AREAS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN 0.05" OF ICE BUT DO SHOW OVER A 50%
CHANCE FOR A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS IN NORTHERN MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES. A FEW INDIVIDUAL HI-RES RUNS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.10" OF ICE, AND NOTED A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ICE ACCRETION WITH
12Z GUIDANCE OVERALL. FOR THESE REASONS, OPTED TO INCLUDE MIDLAND
AND BAY COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AND UP TO 0.10"
OF ICE. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING BY
AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS RAIN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN RATES
IS EXPECTED MIDDAY AS WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAXIMIZES ON THE LEAD
FLANK OF THE INBOUND LOW. RAIN THEN TAPERS TO MAINLY DRIZZLE AND FOG
WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS LOCKED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HEIGHT RISES
AND THICKNESS ADVECTION ENSUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PRODUCES A
WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH FOG MAY PERSIST AT TIMES AS
HIGHER DEW POINTS WORK OVER THE STILL COLD GROUND. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES RIDE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. BLENDED GUIDANCE PRODUCES HIGH PROBABILITY FOR QPF IN
EXCESS OF 0.50" THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN MILDER AIR BRINGING
TEMPS INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DAYTIME TUESDAY,
DRAWING A WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN. WINDS OUT
OF THE SE ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST POLEWARD OF THE FRONT,
WHERE A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR LAKE HURON. A QUIETER FORECAST
IS THEN IN STORE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GLANCES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK AND LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY,
DRAWING A WARM AIRMASS NORTHWARD THAT KEEPS PROFILES STABLE AND
LIMITS MIXING POTENTIAL. OVERALL, MINIMAL HEADLINE POTENTIAL EXISTS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
AVIATION...
MVFR BASED STRATUS IS NOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING SE MI, ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SUBSIDENCE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO LOWER AND DEEPEN THE INVERSION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY TO LOWER CLOUD BASES BELOW 2K
FEET, ALTHOUGH LIKELY SUSTAINING THE CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER, WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS TO DROP TO IFR. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ACTUALLY DRIVE THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF SE
MI PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF A FAST MOVING LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS. SOME
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS METRO WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK THROUGH MUCH OF EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS RAISES THE CONCERNS THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
FLUCTUATIONS IN CEILINGS. A PREVAILING MVFR CLOUD BASE WILL THUS BE
CARRIED THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT. HIGH TUESDAY.
* LOW FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 200FT OR 1/2SM TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR PRECIP TYPE AS FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ047-
048.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....SC
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