605
FXUS63 KDTX 061451
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
951 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-69 THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR TRI-CITIES REGION AND NORTHERN THUMB REGION. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
- RISING TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON, TRENDING TO DRIZZLE BY THE EVENING.
- A CONTINUED WARMING TREND BRINGS HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
NO CRITICAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE OR TO THE VALID
TIMES OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING HAS
OCCURRED ALONG TWO ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACES, THE FIRST AT
APPROXIMATELY 625MB NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY, THE SECOND AT APPROXIMATELY
725-700MB NEAR THE I 69 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THE OBSERVED ACTIVITY HERE
IN THE CWA TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN WARM RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH FNT
REPORTING T OF 35 AND TD OF 33. PLAN VIEW PERSPECTIVE OF FRONTAL
SURFACES SUGGESTS A NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE ACTIVE LOWER PORTION OF THE
FRONT TO AROUND THE M46 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15-00Z, CONCURRENT TO A
STEEPENING UPWARD INTO THE VERTICAL. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT WITH A
STRONGER FRONTAL RESPONSE AND GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES NORTH OF I
69, COLUMN COOLING COULD RESULT IN A GREATER POSSIBILITY OF THE
COLDER PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AVIATION...
A MID MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LEADING WARM FRONT APPROACH
LOWER MI THIS MORNING WITH A PATTERN OF RAIN INCREASING COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AHEAD OF ITS TRACK. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 32 DEGREES LEADS TO A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE
TERMINAL CORRIDOR WITH GREATER INTENSITY AND DURATION TOWARD MBS.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FROM THE DTW AREA
NORTHWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ENTER LOWER MI. IFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN FOG THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. WIND SHIFTS NW TONIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN A TRAILING MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW DURING THE EVENING.
FOR DTW... RAIN ARRIVES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST WITH AN HOUR OR
TWO OF MARGINAL FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET. TEMPERATURE RISES INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MODERATE FOR CEILING/VISIBILITY BELOW 200 FT AND/OR 1/2SM.
* LOW/BRIEF FOR PRECIP TYPE AS FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A GOOD DEAL OF WARM AIR STREAMING THROUGH THE WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY, 10 C AT 850 MB/13 C AT 925 MB PER 00Z ILX RAOB. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE 32+ DEGREE DEW PTS RIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS NORTH.
THE SURFACE LOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ALONG/CLOSE TO THE M-59/I-69 CORRIDORS, AND THERE IS CONCERN WITH
THE EASTERLY SURFACE WIND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL LOCK IN THE
MARGINALLY COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH BLOSSOMING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING, AS SHOWALTER INDEX EVEN LOOKS TO APPROACH ZERO WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF STRONG LIFT MATERIALIZES, WINTRY MIX
(SLEET) COMES BRIEFLY INTO PLAY AS WELL NORTH OF I-69. EVEN WITH A
COLD RAIN AT 33/34 DEGREES, SECONDARY DIRT ROADS WILL LIKELY BE ICY
WITH THE FROZEN GROUND. AS SUCH, HAVE ELECTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES. THE FURTHER WE GET
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, SHOULD BE GET TEMPS AND DEW PTS SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING, AS GFS/NAM/EURO MOS ALL INDICATING THIS, WITH TEMPS EVEN
PUSHING 40+ DEGREES FOR DETROIT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT WET/MELTING SNOW
MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
MODEST COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW PASSAGE,
WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
FOG. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE AND
SLIGHT DRYING TO PREVENT DENSE FOG.
PSEUDO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE CONUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/WAVE EJECTING OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND IMPACTING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. 00Z EURO EVEN INDICATING 700 MB DEW PTS RISING TO AROUND -1 C,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD FOR EARLY JANUARY. FORTUNATELY,
THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE, AND RAINFALL TOTALS HOLD AROUND HALF
AN INCH, PER BULK OF EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST TO CLOSE OUR THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LEADING TO TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
POSSIBLE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COULD LEAD TO A WINTER
STORM FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT EURO ENSEMBLES SHOWING HIGH
DEGREE OF VARIANCE. 00Z CANADIAN KEEPS TOO MUCH OF SOUTHERN ENERGY
BACK TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND INDICATES TWO WEAKER LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY, LIFTING A
WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. POSITIONING OF THE FRONT MARKS
A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN LAKE ERIE (SW FLOW) AND LAKE HURON
(SE FLOW). GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTS POLEWARD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS LAKE HURON WHERE A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY. WINDS AND
WAVES HOWEVER REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. A QUIETER
FORECAST IS THEN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH SHOULD REMAIN HEADLINE-FREE AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
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