908
FXUS63 KDTX 070800
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
300 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY TODAY WITH TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH OFF THE CURRENT VALUES.
- BIG WARMUP KICKS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS TEMPS SURGE WELL
INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS KICKING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF.
DISCUSSION
GOOD SOAKING RAIN YESTERDAY, WITH FLINT SETTING A DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL WITH 0.73 INCHES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AS
INDICATED BY SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL KEEP CLOUDS
LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND EARLY
THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT WORKS THROUGH. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON FOG/VISIBILITIES, AS PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS.
MID LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS, AS 850 MB TEMPS PUSH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS THURSDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AOA 1000 FEET. NONE-THE-LESS, WITH SURFACE DEW PTS
STILL ELEVATED, AT LEAST AROUND 30 DEGREES, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NEAR SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP AND WILL ATTEMPT TO MIX
IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/WAVE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL GET BOOTED OFF THE NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/JET OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVES ONSHORE AND DIVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND
TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
TRANSPORT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN, AS PW VALUES
EXCEED 1 INCH THURSDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN 3-9Z FRIDAY, WITH AN
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE DEW PTS PROGGED
TO REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH,
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S LOOK TO BE IN
JEOPARDY, AS LATEST NBM TEMPS INDICATING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AS EXACT
PHASE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
REMAINS ELUSIVE. LATEST EURO MODEL INDICATES A FASTER PHASING, WITH
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IF THIS SNOW FAILS TO MATERIALIZE, SHOULD BE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO MID TEENS. THUS, THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE COLDER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS
GUSTING AOA 35 MPH.
MARINE
NORTHERN EDGE OF OHIO VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS BACKING
FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THEN CONSTRICTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WHICH EJECTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS LOW REACHES THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY, DRAWING A WARM AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TO
END THE WORK WEEK. STABLE LOW LEVELS PREVENT STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WINDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SYSTEM
THEN DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING, MARKING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND
GUSTS AND ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RIGHT NOW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
MORNING CALLS FOR AMOUNTS ONLY UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. THUS, NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, AS MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.
CLIMATE
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH.
DETROIT: 55 DEGREES (SET IN 1949)
FLINT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
SAGINAW: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
AVIATION...
IFR TO BORDERLINE LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW EXITS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WITH WEAK ASCENT HAS ENSURED A MIX
OF THINNING FOG AND RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY
FROM PTK NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT,
STILL HOLDING IFR FOR MOST SITES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
REORIENT WESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WHICH HELPS USHER IN
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR, THEREFORE VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE PRIOR TO CEILINGS GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. CEILINGS HOLD IN
THE LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
ABOVE 2 KFT AGL AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF SKC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW...PREDOMINANTLY IFR, THEN LIFTING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY OVER, BUT A BIT OF ADDITIONAL
LIGHT DRIZZLE (LIQUID) REMAINS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 200 FEET AND/OR
1/2 SM THE REST OF THE EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....SF
CLIMATE......SF
AVIATION.....KGK
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