404
FXUS63 KDTX 071743
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY TODAY WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES.
- BIG WARMUP KICKS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS TEMPS SURGE WELL
INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS KICKING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF.
AVIATION
LIFR TO LOW MVFR CEILINGS PEPPER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH, THERE HAVE BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBYS AS
WE ENTER THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE KEPT MVFR VSBYS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPOS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z AS VSBYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. A CLEARING LINE IS VISIBLE ACROSS IN/IL AND IS
WORKING NORTHWARD, BUT WILL MAINTAIN PESSIMISTIC CLOUD TRENDS INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 03Z.
EXPECTATIONS IS THAT THIS CLEARING WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION HOLDS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN JUST HOW LOW THE VSBYS WILL GO, SO
WILL PLAY A MORE CONSERVATIVE MVFR VSBY REDUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY THIS EVENING, WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CLOUD IMPROVEMENT
TREND.
FOR DTW... CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED, BUT MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A
CLEARING TREND FROM THE WEST IS PROJECTED FOR THIS EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 200 FEET AND/OR VISIBILITY 1/2 SM OR
LESS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
DISCUSSION...
GOOD SOAKING RAIN YESTERDAY, WITH FLINT SETTING A DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL WITH 0.73 INCHES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AS
INDICATED BY SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL KEEP CLOUDS
LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY. STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND EARLY
THIS MORNING AS TAIL OF UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT WORKS THROUGH. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON FOG/VISIBILITIES, AS PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS.
MID LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS, AS 850 MB TEMPS PUSH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS THURSDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWERING AOA 1000 FEET. NONE-THE-LESS, WITH SURFACE DEW PTS
STILL ELEVATED, AT LEAST AROUND 30 DEGREES, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NEAR SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP AND WILL ATTEMPT TO MIX
IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/WAVE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL GET BOOTED OFF THE NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/JET OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MOVES ONSHORE AND DIVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND
TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
TRANSPORT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN, AS PW VALUES
EXCEED 1 INCH THURSDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN 3-9Z FRIDAY, WITH AN
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE DEW PTS PROGGED
TO REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH,
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S LOOK TO BE IN
JEOPARDY, AS LATEST NBM TEMPS INDICATING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AS EXACT
PHASE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
REMAINS ELUSIVE. LATEST EURO MODEL INDICATES A FASTER PHASING, WITH
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. IF THIS SNOW FAILS TO MATERIALIZE, SHOULD BE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO MID TEENS. THUS, THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE COLDER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS
GUSTING AOA 35 MPH.
MARINE...
NORTHERN EDGE OF OHIO VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS BACKING
FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THEN CONSTRICTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WHICH EJECTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS LOW REACHES THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY, DRAWING A WARM AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TO
END THE WORK WEEK. STABLE LOW LEVELS PREVENT STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WINDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SYSTEM
THEN DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING, MARKING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND
GUSTS AND ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RIGHT NOW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
MORNING CALLS FOR AMOUNTS ONLY UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. THUS, NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, AS MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH.
DETROIT: 55 DEGREES (SET IN 1949)
FLINT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
SAGINAW: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....SF
CLIMATE......SF
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