793
FXUS63 KDTX 072359
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE VERY MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING; TEMPS IN THE
50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN-PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE
TERMINAL AIRSPACE AS THE LAST POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESERVES
STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AMPLE SKC UPSTREAM WITH A CLEARING LINE WORKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS DRIER AIR WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
QUICK SCATTERING OUT OF EXISTING LOW CLOUD WHILE FLOW CONTINUES TO
VEER SSW. THE MAIN FORECAST CONSIDERATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AS THE REDUCED CLOUD FRACTION
SUPPORTS A 10+ DEGREE (F) DROP IN NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. OPTED
TO MAINTAIN EXISTING MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, AND WILL AMEND
ACCORDINGLY AS THE NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER SETTLES IN. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES WHICH
SHOULD COOL MORE AGGRESSIVELY. PRIMARY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS FOG SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ENSUE FOR MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, CLIPPING THE TERMINALS WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, BUT A VFR DRY FORECAST IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH 00Z
(FRIDAY).
FOR DTW...MVFR CEILINGS CLEAR OUT BY 02Z OR 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ARRIVES
THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z (FRIDAY).
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING,
LOW AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 200 FEET AND/OR VISIBILITY 1/2 SM LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
DISCUSSION...
AMPLE LOW STRATUS TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION HAS SUSTAINED
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS SE MI
TODAY. LOW LEVEL ANTICYLONIC FLOW NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES WILL DRIVE A STRONGER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR INTO SE MI
TONIGHT WITHIN INCREASING SSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO A CLEARING TREND DURING THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH PRECISE
TIMING OF THE CLEARING CARRIES SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME
INTERVALS OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE STRATUS
DECK PEELS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR RAPID NOCTURNAL COOLING WITHIN THE
REMNANT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALSO
ARGUES FOR LIMITED NOCTURNAL COOLING TONIGHT, WARRANTING FORECAST
LOWS AROUND 30. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH 925MB
TEMPS UP TO +11C BY THURS AFTERNOON. THE EARLY JANUARY SUN ANGLE
WILL LIMIT MIXING AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
NONETHELESS, IN LIGHT OF TEMPS UPSTREAM, FORECAST HIGHS ON THE
HIGHER END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEM JUSTIFIED; UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL
RAPIDLY EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
INFLOW PRECEDING THIS WAVE WILL BE QUITE STRONG (925-850MB WINDS OF
60-70 KNOTS). THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TRANSPORT OF A PLUME OF VERY
HIGH MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1-1.2") BOTH OF PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF
ORIGIN. WHILE THE STRONG THETA E CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND THE EASTERN UP, GOOD SYSTEM
RELATIVE ASCENT WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME WILL LEAD TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR PERIODS OF RAIN THUS NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW STABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
PEAK WIND GUSTS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURS NIGHT. SURFACE
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL STILL HOWEVER ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, WITH A STEADY DROP IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER. RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH FROPA FRIDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL PHASING OF A DEEP NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
EMANATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EJECTING OUT
OF THE SWRN US THIS WEEKEND. A 500MB HEIGHT FALL MERGER IS FORECAST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
MODEL SPREAD TO CAUSE A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE THERMAL PROFILE/PRECIP TYPE OVER SE MI SATURDAY AND STRENGTH OF
THE WIND FIELDS SAT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT PROBABILITIES HAVE THE TRI
CITIES REGION IN AT LEAST LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP. ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW FURTHER MODEL CONVERGENCE
ON THIS SYSTEM. COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
SE MI ON SUNDAY DOES CARRY A HIGH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
MARINE...
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN OHIO VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY. WIND DIRECTION TO THEN
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ARRIVING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VERY STABLE OVERLAKE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN,
HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SUSTAINED WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY REACH GALES, FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON BASIN. GIVEN THE BREVITY OF GALE
POTENTIAL, WILL PRECLUDE ANY ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
AND ICE FREE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY GIVEN FAVORABLE
SOUTHEAST FETCH ALLOWING WAVE HEIGHTS TO QUICKLY BUILD UP.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH WINDS
THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW DEPARTS FRIDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS
A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER INCH, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF INCH OR MORE.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH.
DETROIT: 55 DEGREES (SET IN 1949)
FLINT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
SAGINAW: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM
HYDROLOGY....SC
CLIMATE......SF
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