729
FXUS63 KDTX 081203
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BECOME VERY MILD TODAY INTO FRIDAY; TEMPS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY LOW 60S.
- RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER WEEKEND.
AVIATION
WIND FROM THE S-SE PICKED UP A LAKE ERIE COMPONENT OF MOISTURE FOR
AN ADDED BOOST TO LIFR FOG/STRATUS, ESPECIALLY FROM PTK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DTW CORRIDOR. COVERAGE IS PROVING TO BE LESS DURABLE
FARTHER NORTH WHERE FNT HAS FLUCTUATED WIDELY LEADING UP TO SUNRISE
WHILE THE SOUTHERN FRINGE ALSO APPROACHES MBS. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY NOW DEPEND ON A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SOUTH
WIND DURING THE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS BETWEEN
LARGER SCALE PRESSURE SYSTEMS. VFR THEN RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WELL WEST OF SE MI WHILE REINFORCING MILD AIR AND
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF STABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS, HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WIND STILL
DEVELOPS GRADIENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS CARRIES FLIGHT LEVELS BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
FOR DTW... THE EDGE OF LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS VERY NEARBY TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL WHILE STILL LINKED TO INFLUENCE FROM LAKE
ERIE. MID TO LATE MORNING IMPROVEMENT LEADS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL RAIN BRINGS A RETURN TO MVFR TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 200 FEET AND/OR VISIBILITY 1/2 SM
LATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
DISCUSSION...
AS THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT YESTERDAY EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
ENOUGH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND TO SUPPORT
FOG, WHICH HAS BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. WINDS INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE
SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, MAXES COULD
BE IMPACTED A BIT AND FALL SHORT OF 50 DEGREES AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY,
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH TEXAS AND MAKING THE TURN OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET (70 KNOTS) WILL
TRANSPORT A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
AS 850 MB DEW PTS OF 9 C ENTER THE STATE TONIGHT. WITH THE BETTER
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WEST OF THE CWA, HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MISS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, MODEST INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHING ZERO
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6+ C/KM) DOES WORK INTO THE AREA, SO A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND ACCOMPANIED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COLD GROUND AND STABLE NEAR SURFACE PROFILE SHOULD HELP
LIMIT WIND GUSTS, BUT LOCAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE GROWING
BOUNDARY LAYER ON FRIDAY LOOKING TO SEE THE BETTER POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER ON FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 45+
MPH BECOME LIKELY, AS AT LEAST HALF THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE THIS. RIGHT NOW, LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONE-THE-LESS, WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 11-12 C,
THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL FOR MAXES IS LOWER 60S. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING, A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST OF MID
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SEEMS WARRANTED, WHICH STILL SHOULD SET THE
DAILY RECORD VALUES. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AS 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO FRIDAY
EVENING.
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE/500 MB LOW TO TRACK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW AND
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES STAYING OUT AHEAD AND
REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THUS, PHASING AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE IN STORE, WITH SURFACE PRESSURE LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
1000 MB THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NONE-THE-LESS, THE NORTHERN STREAM
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IS DEEP AND DOES TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
POSSIBLY 3-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES REGION,
CLOSER/UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. DEEPER MIXING ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
EXPECTED PER EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN METEOGRAMS.
MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
LOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE VERY STABLE LOW
LEVEL PROFILES, THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL
JET WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO GALES OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE HURON, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FETCH. HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE AND ICE FREE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY AS
IDEALIZED SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS. WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER LAKE ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS THEN VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
DIMINISHING STRONGER WINDS LEADING INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BASIN AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
OF INCH TO HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
FLOODING AS THE SNOW PACK HAS DISSIPATED.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH.
DETROIT: 55 DEGREES (SET IN 1949)
FLINT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
SAGINAW: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ362-
363-462-463.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LEZ444.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM/SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
CLIMATE......SF
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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