593
FXUS63 KDTX 090524
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1224 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT.
- WINDY FRIDAY, GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND WET SNOW SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
AVIATION
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT
GENERATING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (LOCALLY) INTO FRIDAY WITH A MARKED
INCREASE IN GUSTINESS. MARGINAL LLWS CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 60+ KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WHILE GRADIENT WINDS RISE,
RESPECTIVELY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING, AROUND THE TIME OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (AND
IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARDS) WHICH LEADS TO PEAK GUSTS OF 35+ KNOTS.
SUSTAINED GRADIENT FLOW THEN VEERS WESTERLY, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
ALBEIT WITH A WEAKENING TENDENCY.
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER TONIGHT DESPITE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
SINCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LAGS TOP-DOWN SATURATION. SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. LOW POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUATION OF MVFR INTO THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY ALSO DECREASES. STILL CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND NON-ZERO INSTABILITY ALOFT. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT MBS (AMENDED), AND THERE'S ALSO BEEN SOME DEGREE OF
EROSION IN LOW-LEVEL STABILITY GIVEN A STRONG CONVECTIVE GUST AT FNT.
FOR DTW... WAVES OF SHOWERS UNDERWAY WITH SLOW CEILING DECLINE.
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR IFR FRIDAY MORNING. CORE OF 60+
KT WIND ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EXITS FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY
POSE CROSSWIND OPERATION CONCERNS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, THEN
HIGH AFTER 08Z.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
* MODERATE FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z
FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE FEATURE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION EARLY FRI MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE,
WITH A 60-70 KNOT 925MB LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM FORECAST TO LIFT
ACROSS SE MI OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT.
ONGOING GULF MOISTURE INFLUX IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES
ACROSS SE MI OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL SURGE IN MID LEVEL THETA E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A REGION OF LIGHT
RAIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS WILL
SUSTAIN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS ALSO
FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SE MI IN THE 15Z TO
18Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY.
THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME VARIANCE ON POTENTIAL
SURFACE GUSTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH RESULTS IN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS (45M PH) OR SUB ADVISORY
WINDS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY
CONCERNS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LOCALS TO BREAK 60 FRI MORNING PRIOR TO FROPA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. EVEN WITH THIS DEGREE OF WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
MIXING DEPTHS WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED, SUPPORTIVE OF HOLDING WIND GUSTS BELOW 45 MPH. THERE WILL
BE SHALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FRONT FRIDAY, WHICH
LEADS TO AN INCREASED RISK OF A SECOND PERIOD OF STRONGER GUSTS
WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE QUICKLY STEEPENING WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS
IS THE PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS.
THE POTENTIAL BREVITY OF THE IDEAL MIXING PROFILE CORRESPONDING WITH
THE AXIS OF STRONG WINDS ARGUES HOLDING OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER WAVE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVED INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A DEEP LAYER MOIST PLUME
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE
REGION, WITH A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD NON PHASING WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE. AN INITIAL INFLUX OF POSITIVE MID LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION ACROSS SE MI SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVES
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH WET SNOW FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE, A MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY INTENSE.
MARINE...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO TRAVERSE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE THE VERY
STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES, THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY AFFORD A WINDOW FOR SOME LOW-END GALES FAVORED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON, WHERE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WHICH WILL VEER WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE
OVER LAKE STABILITY AND WILL BOOST MIXING DEPTHS, BRINGING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR GUST TO GALES LEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, A QUICK POP OF AN ISOLATED
GUST TO HIGH-END GALES AROUND 45 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS LAKE HURON. A CHANGE TO NOTE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS THE ADDITION OF A GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON
AS CONFIDENCE REGARDING GUST TO GALES HAS INCREASED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL ICE FREE NEARSHORE
ZONES, WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WHERE A QUICK POP TO GUST TO GALES WIL BE
LIKELY. LAST, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, DIMINISHING STRONGER WINDS LEADING INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF INCH TO
INCH. THE SAGINAW VALLEY REGION HAS A LITTLE HIGHER TOTAL QPF
PROBABILITIES, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR TOTAL RAIN TO EXCEED ONE INCH.
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING.
CLIMATE...
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH.
DETROIT: 55 DEGREES (SET IN 1949)
FLINT: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
SAGINAW: 54 DEGREES (SET IN 1939)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441>443.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362-363-462-463.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM
HYDROLOGY....SC
CLIMATE......SC
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