065
FXUS63 KDTX 100852
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB TAPER TO A DUSTING
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.
- SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE A TEXTBOOK PV
ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER OF ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR SE MICHIGAN
THIS WEEKEND. THIS DEFINED PV FEATURE QUICKLY CATCHES UP TO A SERIES
OF LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES THAT ARE SHEARING NORTHEAST IN THE
PRESENCE OF A ~155 KNOT JET. CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE LEADS TO
FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS THIS MORNING,
WHICH THEN PIVOTS INTO SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
SHORTAGE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LEFT EXIT REGION
DYNAMICS OVERLAP WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN. LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW
(CENTERED AROUND 18Z-00Z / 1PM-7PM) FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PIVOT SW-NE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN BEFORE A DRY SLOT SURGES IN LATE
EVENING TO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE FEED.
MAIN QUESTION WITH TODAY'S EVENT REMAINS PRECIPITATION TYPE, AS
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 33 AND 37
DEGREES AT ONSET. DEEP SATURATION ENSURES ICE NUCLEATION, AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT THE P-TYPE QUESTION REALLY COMES
DOWN TO THE WET BULB ZERO (WBZ) HEIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER WE SEE
RAIN, SNOW, OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX. GREATEST CHANCE FOR AN ALL SNOW
OUTCOME IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WHERE WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
CLOSE TO 500 FT VERSUS NEAR METRO DETROIT/THE OHIO BORDER WHERE THEY
ARE CLOSER TO 1.0-1.5 KFT. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING A RAIN-SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF I-94 THAT TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW (ALBEIT WET/MELTING
FLAKES) NORTH. SECOND QUESTION IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS,
WHICH IS EVEN TRICKIER AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOA FREEZING TO
ENSURE SOME DEGREE OF MELTING/COMPACTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS
THE MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL STAYS TO OUR NORTH, SO
HIGH SNOWFALL RATES/SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC COOLING ARE NOT AS MUCH OF
A CONCERN. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE AN ALL SNOW SCENARIO, COULD GRIND
OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BY THIS EVENING, BUT THIS DROPS OFF
QUICKLY TO A DUSTING WHERE RAIN MIXES IN.
BIGGEST SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS A
NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, WHICH IS NOW PROJECTED TO
ANCHOR AND OCCLUDE NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS THIS EVENING. THIS
HELPS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PROGRESSIVE AS DRY SLOTTING
QUICKLY FILLS IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. STEEP ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS
CONNECTED TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH DROPS TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 30S INTO THE MID-20S
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE LOW SENDS A SHARP POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT RENEWED MOISTURE DEPTHS THROUGH
THE DGZ, ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES THAT SUPPORT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA, WHILE ALSO FOCUSING PRECIPITATION INTO A NARROW
AXIS, SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SHORT RESIDENCE TIME KEEPS
ACCUMULATIONS MINOR (AN INCH OR LESS). ON THE OTHER HAND, BRIEF
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXHIBIT SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
COULD CAUSE VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO A DUSTING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
THUMB REGION WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ACTIVATES LAKE
HURON MOISTURE FLUX. FLOW ORIENTATION AND LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE THUMB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY BARELY BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK, ALTHOUGH MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM DIRECTS MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL WAVES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MILDER AIRMASS
KEEPING RAIN AS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-WEEK. LONG-RANGE SIGNALS
THEN POINT TO A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK, DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARD NORMAL STANDARDS FOR MID-JANUARY (HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S,
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS).
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BRIEFLY SETTLED IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH INITIALLY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPARTURE OF THIS LOW INTO CANADA WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT, BOOSTING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE GUST TO GALES HAS INCREASED FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHERE A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON, INITIALLY FOR GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. AS
WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST, WAVE HEIGHTS
QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG THE SHORELINE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING, DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
AVIATION...
LOWER COLUMN FLOW HAS STARTED TO RESPOND TO EXPANDING SUBSIDENCE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LEADING TO THE EROSION OF BKN-OVC MVFR LAKE-
MODIFIED STRATOCUMULUS DECK BENEATH A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
INCORPORATED SOME TEMPOS FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL SCATTERING, BUT
ANOTHER PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MI/OH BORDER, THEREFORE INCORPORATED ADDITIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CEILINGS TO FULLY FILL BACK IN AND
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR, THEN VISIBILITIES DECREASE ACCORDINGLY AFTER
PRECIPITATION STARTS. SITES FROM PTK NORTH ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALL SNOW AT THE START OF THE EVENT, WHILE FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHER
CHANCES EXISTS FOR RAIN, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET. PRECIPITATION
LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 15Z, BEGINNING LATER WITH SOUTHEASTWARD
EXTENT TO AROUND 18Z. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING VEERING WINDS WESTERLY. THIS ALSO ACTIVATES COLD ADVECTION,
LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW...MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT, THEN VFR UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS RAIN/SNOW ARRIVES. WINDS BACK WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT, THEN HIGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MODERATE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN HIGH
FOR SNOW SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LHZ363-
462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....KGK
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