811
FXUS63 KDTX 101652
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB TAPER TO A DUSTING
NEAR THE OHIO BORDER.
- SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, TRENDING INTO IFR LATE IN THE DAY WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN DEW PTS
RISING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY MELTING SNOW. HIGHER
PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES OF FNT AND ESPECIALLY MBS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS BY EARLY
EVENING. DRY SLOT ATTEMPTS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED
(8-14Z), SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY HALF AN INCH OR LESS. NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...MIX OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW 19-00Z. ACCUMULATION NOT
EXPECTED ON PAVEMENT AS TEMPS HOLD AVOVE FREEZING.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL
EXIST SUNDAY MORNING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON LIKELY GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 THROUGH 00Z. LOW 00Z-08Z, THEN
HIGH.
* HIGH FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH FOR SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* MODERATE FOR WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD BEING MET TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
DISCUSSION...
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE A TEXTBOOK PV
ANOMALY DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER OF ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR SE MICHIGAN
THIS WEEKEND. THIS DEFINED PV FEATURE QUICKLY CATCHES UP TO A SERIES
OF LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES THAT ARE SHEARING NORTHEAST IN THE
PRESENCE OF A ~155 KNOT JET. CONSTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE LEADS TO
FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS THIS MORNING,
WHICH THEN PIVOTS INTO SE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
SHORTAGE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LEFT EXIT REGION
DYNAMICS OVERLAP WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN. LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW
(CENTERED AROUND 18Z-00Z / 1PM-7PM) FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
PIVOT SW-NE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN BEFORE A DRY SLOT SURGES IN LATE
EVENING TO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE FEED.
MAIN QUESTION WITH TODAY'S EVENT REMAINS PRECIPITATION TYPE, AS
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 33 AND 37
DEGREES AT ONSET. DEEP SATURATION ENSURES ICE NUCLEATION, AND IN THE
ABSENCE OF A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT THE P-TYPE QUESTION REALLY COMES
DOWN TO THE WET BULB ZERO (WBZ) HEIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER WE SEE
RAIN, SNOW, OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX. GREATEST CHANCE FOR AN ALL SNOW
OUTCOME IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WHERE WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
CLOSE TO 500 FT VERSUS NEAR METRO DETROIT/THE OHIO BORDER WHERE THEY
ARE CLOSER TO 1.0-1.5 KFT. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING A RAIN-SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF I-94 THAT TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW (ALBEIT WET/MELTING
FLAKES) NORTH. SECOND QUESTION IS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS,
WHICH IS EVEN TRICKIER AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOA FREEZING TO
ENSURE SOME DEGREE OF MELTING/COMPACTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS
THE MAJORITY OF MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL STAYS TO OUR NORTH, SO
HIGH SNOWFALL RATES/SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC COOLING ARE NOT AS MUCH OF
A CONCERN. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE AN ALL SNOW SCENARIO, COULD GRIND
OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BY THIS EVENING, BUT THIS DROPS OFF
QUICKLY TO A DUSTING WHERE RAIN MIXES IN.
BIGGEST SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS A
NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, WHICH IS NOW PROJECTED TO
ANCHOR AND OCCLUDE NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS THIS EVENING. THIS
HELPS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PROGRESSIVE AS DRY SLOTTING
QUICKLY FILLS IN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. STEEP ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS
CONNECTED TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH DROPS TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 30S INTO THE MID-20S
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE LOW SENDS A SHARP POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT RENEWED MOISTURE DEPTHS THROUGH
THE DGZ, ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES THAT SUPPORT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA, WHILE ALSO FOCUSING PRECIPITATION INTO A NARROW
AXIS, SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SHORT RESIDENCE TIME KEEPS
ACCUMULATIONS MINOR (AN INCH OR LESS). ON THE OTHER HAND, BRIEF
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXHIBIT SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
COULD CAUSE VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO A DUSTING TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.
SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
THUMB REGION WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ACTIVATES LAKE
HURON MOISTURE FLUX. FLOW ORIENTATION AND LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE THUMB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY BARELY BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK, ALTHOUGH MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM DIRECTS MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL WAVES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MILDER AIRMASS
KEEPING RAIN AS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-WEEK. LONG-RANGE SIGNALS
THEN POINT TO A COOL DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK, DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARD NORMAL STANDARDS FOR MID-JANUARY (HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S,
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS).
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BRIEFLY SETTLED IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH INITIALLY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SNOW TO THE GREAT LAKES. DEPARTURE OF THIS LOW INTO CANADA WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT, BOOSTING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION RAMPS UP. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE GUST TO GALES HAS INCREASED FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHERE A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER
SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON, INITIALLY FOR GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. AS
WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST, WAVE HEIGHTS
QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG THE SHORELINE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING, DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ363-
462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......AM
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