473
FXUS63 KDTX 102004
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
304 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB DECREASING TO A DUSTING NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER.
- SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE CAN BE EASILY SEEN ON SATELLITE SPINNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF
LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS WITH THE 500MB JET WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING IN THE 33 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE. SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN P-TYPE
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES WHERE LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS EXIST WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 33-34 DEGREES. MORNING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TO A GREATER RAIN-MELTING SNOW MIX P-TYPE SLIGHTLY NORTH TO
PONTIAC AND TOWARDS FLINT FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
BRINGS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION HOLDING BELOW AN INCH
UP TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AND AROUND A HALF
INCH OR LESS UP TO THE M-59. AT PRESS TIME, HIGHEST RATES FOCUSED
ALONG THE IRISH HILLS WHERE A SNOW/MELTING SNOW WILL BE FAVORED
GIVEN THE LOCALLY COOLER PROFILES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. HAVE MAINTAINED ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA
EVEN AS GUIDANCE WANTS TO REMOVE IT. THUS, UP TO AROUND HALF INCH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS
THESE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND CANNOT RULE OUT ACHIEVING AN INCH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EITHER. MORNING GUIDANCE ALSO POINTED TOWARDS
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR 0.25"/HR RATES DURING A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTY STILL MAY SEE UPWARDS
OF 1.0-2.0 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH 7 PM, THOUGH ACCUMULATION MAY
BE LIMITED HERE TOO BY THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER
SNOW RATE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION AXIS PIVOTS NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z
WITH A DRY SLOT TAKING HOLD OF MOST, IF NOT ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS EVENING AND EAST OF LAKE HURON BY 7
AM TOMORROW. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH MICHIGAN
ON THE BEHIND SURFACE LOW DEPARTURE. MOISTURE DEPTHS IMPROVES FROM
BOTH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE BOOST. COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES HELP PUT BETTER SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ AS LIFT WITH THE
TROUGH IS ABLE TO GENERATE A SECOND ROUND OF SNOWFALL. ACTIVITY
SHOULD GET STARTED ACROSS MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTY AROUND 3-4 AM
TONIGHT AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH BULK OF MORE ORGANIZED SNOWFALL EASING BY AROUND 10 AM
TOMORROW MORNING AFTER MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR
LESS. ACCUMULATIONS UP TOWARD 1 INCH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALL LIKE BANDING ALONG THE
TROUGH AIDED BY BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. I-69 AND POINTS NORTH
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THESE BETTER SNOW RATES. INTENSITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MID 20S.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY TOWARDS THE THUMB BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS HOLD AROUND FREEZING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BRINGING AN END
TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. MILDER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY. P-TYPE
TUESDAY WOULD SEE A RAIN/MELTING SNOW FAVORED GIVEN THE MILDER
AIRMASS. A COOL DOWN TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OR BELOW
WILL ARRIVE BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH THE AREA. DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BOOSTING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY,
CONFIDENCE TO SEE GUST TO LOW-END GALES HAS INCREASED AND A GALE
WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON, INITIALLY FOR GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. AS WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST, WAVE HEIGHTS
QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG THE SHORELINE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING, ENDING GALE
CHANCES. BREEZY CONDITIONS BELOW GALES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, TRENDING INTO IFR LATE IN THE DAY WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN DEW PTS
RISING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY MELTING SNOW. HIGHER
PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES OF FNT AND ESPECIALLY MBS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS BY EARLY
EVENING. DRY SLOT ATTEMPTS TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MVFR
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED
(8-14Z), SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY HALF AN INCH OR LESS. NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...MIX OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW 19-00Z. ACCUMULATION NOT
EXPECTED ON PAVEMENT AS TEMPS HOLD ABOVE FREEZING.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL
EXIST SUNDAY MORNING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON LIKELY GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 THROUGH 00Z. LOW 00Z-08Z, THEN
HIGH.
* HIGH FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH FOR SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* MODERATE FOR WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD BEING MET TOMORROW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ363-
462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST MONDAY
FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....SF
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