565
FXUS63 KDTX 110507
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN A SLIGHT LULL AS THE NEXT WAVE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AIRSPACE (SOUTH OF
MBS). MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITY DROPS TO IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW (PTK TO START). AN ADDITIONAL
AXIS OF LIGHT SNOW MIGHT SAG SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING, ADDRESSED VIA ANOTHER TEMPO BEFORE 15Z. CEILINGS EVENTUALLY
LIFT TO LOW VFR MIDDAY SUNDAY WHILE AS GUSTS SPIKE INTO THE 25-30
KNOT RANGE UPON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY GIVEN ADVANCING
HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASING STABILITY. LOW CLOUD FRACTION DROPS OFF
SUNDAY EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH
WEAKENING/BACKING GRADIENT WINDS.
FOR DTW...MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL. LOW CHANCE FOR IFR VISIBILITIES. SECONDARY MVFR
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE 12-15Z. STRONG PREVAILING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM 310 DEGREES MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, PRESENTING CROSSWIND CONCERNS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, AND
THEN HIGH SUNDAY MORNING, LOW MIDDAY SUNDAY.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
* MODERATE FOR 310 DEGREE CROSSWIND THRESHOLD BEING MET MIDDAY
SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CAN BE EASILY SEEN ON SATELLITE SPINNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF
LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS WITH THE 500MB JET WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING IN THE 33 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE. SNOW REMAINS THE MAIN P-TYPE
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES WHERE LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS EXIST WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 33-34 DEGREES. MORNING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY TO A GREATER RAIN-MELTING SNOW MIX P-TYPE SLIGHTLY NORTH TO
PONTIAC AND TOWARDS FLINT FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND
BRINGS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION HOLDING BELOW AN INCH
UP TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AND AROUND A HALF
INCH OR LESS UP TO THE M-59. AT PRESS TIME, HIGHEST RATES FOCUSED
ALONG THE IRISH HILLS WHERE A SNOW/MELTING SNOW WILL BE FAVORED
GIVEN THE LOCALLY COOLER PROFILES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND LOWER
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. HAVE MAINTAINED ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA
EVEN AS GUIDANCE WANTS TO REMOVE IT. THUS, UP TO AROUND HALF INCH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS
THESE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND CANNOT RULE OUT ACHIEVING AN INCH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EITHER. MORNING GUIDANCE ALSO POINTED TOWARDS
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR 0.25"/HR RATES DURING A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTY STILL MAY SEE UPWARDS
OF 1.0-2.0 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH 7 PM, THOUGH ACCUMULATION MAY
BE LIMITED HERE TOO BY THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER
SNOW RATE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION AXIS PIVOTS NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z
WITH A DRY SLOT TAKING HOLD OF MOST, IF NOT ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN, FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS EVENING AND EAST OF LAKE HURON BY 7
AM TOMORROW. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH MICHIGAN
ON THE BEHIND SURFACE LOW DEPARTURE. MOISTURE DEPTHS IMPROVES FROM
BOTH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE MOISTURE BOOST. COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES HELP PUT BETTER SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ AS LIFT WITH THE
TROUGH IS ABLE TO GENERATE A SECOND ROUND OF SNOWFALL. ACTIVITY
SHOULD GET STARTED ACROSS MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTY AROUND 3-4 AM
TONIGHT AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH BULK OF MORE ORGANIZED SNOWFALL EASING BY AROUND 10 AM
TOMORROW MORNING AFTER MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR
LESS. ACCUMULATIONS UP TOWARD 1 INCH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALL LIKE BANDING ALONG THE
TROUGH AIDED BY BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. I-69 AND POINTS NORTH
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THESE BETTER SNOW RATES. INTENSITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MID 20S.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY TOWARDS THE THUMB BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS HOLD AROUND FREEZING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BRINGING AN END
TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. MILDER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY. P-TYPE
TUESDAY WOULD SEE A RAIN/MELTING SNOW FAVORED GIVEN THE MILDER
AIRMASS. A COOL DOWN TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OR BELOW
WILL ARRIVE BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH THE AREA. DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BOOSTING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY,
CONFIDENCE TO SEE GUST TO LOW-END GALES HAS INCREASED AND A GALE
WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY TO PORT HURON, INITIALLY FOR GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. AS WIND DIRECTION VEERS FROM EAST TO NORTHWEST, WAVE HEIGHTS
QUICKLY INCREASE ALONG THE SHORELINE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING, ENDING GALE
CHANCES. BREEZY CONDITIONS BELOW GALES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ363-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
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