151
FXUS63 KDTX 111059
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
559 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATION FROM
A DUSTING TO HALF INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- DRIER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 30 TO 35 MPH.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 40S
TUESDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS TO THE TAF PERIOD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
18Z AS A TROUGH AXIS DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT MARKS THE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A POP IN WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GENERATED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE SUGGESTS MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN
THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR IN DRIER SPOTS.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED. DEPARTURE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS AFFORDS A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF SCATTERING LOW CLOUD
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER
WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE
VARIABLE ON IF THIS MOIST PLUME CAN STAY IN TACT BY THE TIME IT
ADVECTS OVER SE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERING CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW IMPACTS DTW BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z, WITH MVFR TO
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG PREVAILING
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM 310 DEGREES MIDDAY SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PRESENTING CROSSWIND CONCERNS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH THIS MORNING, LOW THIS AFTERNOON, MEDIUM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR 310 DEGREE CROSSWIND THRESHOLD BEING MET LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
DISCUSSION...
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS PROCESS WILL DRAW THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENSION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. BURST OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD WING OF MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA
WILL FADE, AS ATTENTION SHIFTS TO EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE
DEPTH AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING AS
CONVERGENCE CONSOLIDATES ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING WIND SHIFT
AXIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE INTO SOME INTERVALS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MID-LATE MORNING PERIOD, WITH POCKETS OF
HIGHER INTENSITY RATES POSSIBLE GIVEN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE PROFILE.
RESIDENCE TIME LIKELY CAPS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OVERALL. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A GENERAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS EMERGE AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES DEPTH AND
MAGNITUDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY REDUCING MOISTURE
QUALITY AND ENDING SNOWFALL CHANCES. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY EVENTUALLY
PROVE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO AFFORD SOME PEAKS OF SUN LATE IN THE DAY.
RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE REMAINS SEASONABLE FOR MID JANUARY, WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PERIOD OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH PASSING SURFACE RIDGING. THIS OFFERS SIMPLY A LIMITED DROP IN
NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM GLANCING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LACKS IN BOTH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING. PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF
INCONSEQUENTIAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE THUMB DURING
THIS TIME.
STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL MARK THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
UNDER SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS
FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY, AS READINGS PUSH INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER PROJECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERALL, LEADING TO
A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LASTING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENCAPSULATE THE REGION
MIDWEEK, AS A STRONGER LOBE OF VORTICITY OF ARCTIC ORIGIN BREAKS OFF
THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW AND DIGS SOUTHWARD. INBOUND ARCTIC FRONT
ANCHORING THE LEAD EDGE OF PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW ACROSS THE WED AND WED NIGHT
PERIODS AS GOVERNING FORCING AND THE THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESS
FACILITATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ARCTIC AIR THEN ENTRENCHED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ENGULFS MUCH OF THE CONUS. SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM WIND CHILL CURRENTLY
PROJECTED THU/FRI MORNINGS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL ENERGY WORKING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAY LEAVE CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRAJECTORY, PACE AND MAGNITUDE. NBM
HIGHLIGHTS BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BUT WITH
GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN OFFERING A BROAD CHANCE MENTION FOR SNOW
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITIVELY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A SURGE OF COLDER AIR HAS FILLED IN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THROUGH QUEBEC. THE ADVECT OF COLDER
AIR HAS ENHANCED OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST
FETCH BRINGS LIKELY GUST TO GALES ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON INTO THE EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. CONTINUED BACKING OF WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS WITHIN THE SAGINAW BAY
AND ACROSS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING, ENDING GALE CHANCES. CONDITIONS REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THEY DAY TOMORROW AS THE COLDER AIR HOLDS. A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ELEVATED WINDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ363-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......AM
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