754
FXUS63 KDTX 112336
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
636 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE EARLY WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
IN THE 40S TUESDAY. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
AREA OF MVFR STRATUS TO THE WEST HAS BEEN SLOWING INCHING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
MORE WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FINAL PUSH NEEDED TO GET THE
STRATUS OVER ALL THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH DRIER
AIR WEST OF LAKE MI, AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A CLEARING TREND LATE
TONIGHT, WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST TO MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING. MBS AND FNT LOOK TO HOLD STRATUS THROUGH PART OR
MOST OF MONDAY AS THE REST OF THE SITES ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING, LOW TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS ARRIVED IN THE WAKE OF THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO
EASE INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DEPTHS SHRINK AND LOWER LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE. FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS OFFERING A
GLIMPSE OF THE SUN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL BACK IN AS
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING SENDING LAKE
MICHIGAN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL FLOW
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARM ADVECTION STRETCH. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING THE PASSING RIDGE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE
DEPTH WILL LACKING TOO. NOTHING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE THUMB. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE EARLY WEEK WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 1-3C RESULTING IN HIGHS TOPPING 40
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT THE
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING PREDOMINATELY RAIN P-TYPE
AFTER A SHORT WINDOW OF RAIN/MELTING SNOW CHANCES IN THE MORNING AT
THE ONSET. EXPECT AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A STRONGER WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF HUDSON BAY DEEPENING THE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SETTING UP A STRETCH OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
REINFORCING WAVE WILL SEND AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AT
850MB PLUNGING TO BELOW -10C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY MORNING HAS WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO ZERO OR BELOW TO START
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST NIGHTS. TROUGHING AND ADVERTISED
ACTIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THAT FLOW RESULTS IN A BROAD BRUSH OF
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES.
MARINE...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALBEIT WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT ONCE SURFACE RIDGING BRIEFLY
FILLS IN BEHIND THE LATEST DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALE
WARNINGS DROP-OFF ACCORDING TO SCHEDULE GIVEN DECLINING GUSTS, BUT A
SHORT-FUSE LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAKE ERIE.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
AND BACK TOWARD THE WSW OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
PREVAILING WINDS TO 25+ KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE HURON BASIN BY
SUNRISE. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB, THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. ELEVATED FLOW PERSISTS TUESDAY AND TURNS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. THIS COULD LEAD TO EXTENSIONS
AND/OR EXPANSIONS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON NEARSHORES, BUT GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW GALES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW THEN SLOWLY PIVOTS THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. POST-FRONTAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KGK
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