049
FXUS63 KDTX 262008
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
308 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 15 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FIRST EPISODE OF DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS.
- SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALLS.
- A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY MORNING SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD STREAMING IN
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY ALLOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE WEST MI SHORE TO RELEASE EAST OVER SE MI. WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO ROTATE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EVENING, LAKE MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY CUTOFF CONFINING MAIN SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL TODAY TO THIS
AFTERNOON RELEASE. OVERALL THE SCATTERED, TRANSIENT NATURE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS MINOR WITH MOST AREAS SEEING ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH HALF INCH AMOUNTS CONFINED TO
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, INCLUDING
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER WHERE CLEARER SKIES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MIDLAND AND
FAR NORTHERN BAY COUNTIES STILL EXPECTED TO SEE THE 'WARMEST' WIND
CHILLS, HOLDING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS INSTEAD, DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DRAWING IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME. PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI BETWEEN 08-12Z BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
GENERATE QPF WITH THIS FEATURE OWING TO A GENERAL LACK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, BOTH RESIDUAL AND ADVECTED, AND SUBSEQUENT SHALLOW COLUMN
SATURATION. RUNNING FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER POP-
LOWER QPF SETUP WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN DROPS THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 14-
18Z OFFERING ANOTHER WINDOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WHILE HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF LAKE MOISTURE
AUGMENTATION, SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RATHER LACKLUSTER
MOISTURE/SATURATION KEEPING COVERAGE RATHER NARROW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. CAN'T RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH
MODELED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 AND COLUMN WIND
FIELDS STILL HOLDING 30-40KTS AROUND FROPA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALSO FORECAST TO ONLY BE UP TO AROUND A HALF
INCH AT MOST. TRAILING LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED, ONLY REALLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING, AS WINDS
QUICKLY WEAKEN AND TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NIGHT.
AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT SEES 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -22C BY TUESDAY
NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TEMPS NEAR 0F. WEAKENING OF
WINDS UNDER 10MPH HOWEVER KEEPS FEELS-LIKE TEMPS MORE BORDERLINE FOR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (IE WIND CHILLS AOB -15F) WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST RANGING -10 TO -15. GIVEN THE ADVISORY STILL IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND THE CURRENT BORDERLINE FORECAST, NO HEADLINES
WERE CONSIDERED WITH THIS PACKAGE AS FURTHER REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY
AS WE GET CLOSER.
A BETTER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE
GOVERNING JAMES BAY UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAWING
THE AIRMASS DUE SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-25C EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DAYTIME THURSDAY CAPPING
HIGHS FOR IT AND FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TEENS. THURSDAY NIGHT LIKELY
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS ACTUAL TEMPS FALL 5 TO 10
BELOW ZERO. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD, ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL
BRING FEELS-LIKE TEMPS TOWARDS THE 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE WITH
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKING LIKELY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALES
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON ARE ALSO IN PLAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, TRANSITIONING TO LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT OVER LAKE HURON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LEADING TO A LAKE SUPERIOR-NORTHER LAKE HURON
CONNECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY, AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES. VERY COLD AIRMASS
(NEGATIVE MID 20S AT 850 MB) WILL LEAD TO LAKE INDUCED TROUGH ON
THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY UNTIL A POSSIBLE ROUND OF
LAKE EFFECT MAKES IT ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A MVFR
TEMPO GOING FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL SOME BETTER SIGNAL IN RADAR IMAGES
STARTS COMING IN. SKIES WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT, AT LEAST IN THE
LOW LEVELS, TONIGHT FOR A BIT AS RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE BUT
THE NEXT TROUGH IS ALREADY APPROACHING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW FROM ABOUT 08-12Z. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW A FEW HOURS LATER
AND ADDITIONAL LAKE BANDS WILL LOOK TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AGAIN.
WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST. GUSTS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR 25 KNOTS TONIGHT.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR. STEADIER SNOWFALL ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY
AROUND 09-12Z WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY. AT THIS
POINT MVFR LOOKS MOST LIKELY BUT COULD GET SOME BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND THEN LAKE EFFECT BEGINS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
* HIGH IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....DRK
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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