682
FXUS63 KDTX 270833
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE FIRST EPISODE
OF DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS.
- SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALLS.
- WINDCHILLS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE AND WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE.
DISCUSSION
STEADY DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WAS SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE
WINDCHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE
COLDEST WINDCHILLS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA,
SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR AS CLOUD WAS ABLE TO TEMPER THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE DROP ACROSS THE NORTH. WHILE WINDCHILLS WILL LIKELY RISE
HEADING INTO SUNRISE, WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO LAKE SUPERIOR IS
SENDING A WAVE OF 750-600MB WARM ADVECTION THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLIER SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FALLING SNOW OF 1/4-2SM. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RADAR SITES (LOWER ELEVATION
SAMPLING) WITH AN OBVIOUS LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
CONTRIBUTION. Z VALUES HAVE WEAKENED AS THE WARM ADVECTION WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LESS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH STATIC STABILITY FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 12.0 KFT AGL THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS, WILL CONTINUE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY WORDING FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS THIS
MORNING WITH JUST A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION WITH LOW LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IN THE 2.0 TO 6.0 KFT AGL
LAYER IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. STEEP, CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO SNOW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST HIRES TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE
SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS IN THE POST COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OF 25 TO 35 MPH. STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWER BANDING AND HOW FAR EASTWARD ANY SNOW BANDS WILL
PROGRESS OR EXTEND. PREFERENCE WAS AGAIN TO GO WITH A HIGH POP/LOW
QPF THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRIDS WILL HAVE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR DEPENDENT ON DURATION OF
BANDING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ARCTIC PATTERN IS FORECASTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECASTED DURING THE
COMING DAYS, BUT GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL LIKELY SEE CHANCES
FOR PERPETUAL FLURRIES OR AT TIMES LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIG
FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER AND
WINDCHILL HEADLINES THIS WEEK. FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE
COLD AIR INTRUSION IS SHOWN TO UNDERGO A QUICK MODERATION WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES TO -18-19C. DO THINK
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT SO THE QUESTION COMES DOWN TO
SURFACE WINDS. DATA SUGGESTS A SURFACE WIND OF AROUND 5 MPH LATE
TONIGHT AND LATEST 5.0 NBM PLACES 50TH PERCENTILE FOR APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AT AROUND -8 TO -10F TOMORROW MORNING. WILL NOT BE
ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL REINFORCE THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH AND BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -22C FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 0 TO 5 BELOW, WITH READINGS FRIDAY MORNING OF BETWEEN 7 TO
10 BELOW. WINDCHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BET 12 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY MORNING AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURING THE
LATE WEEK.
SOME FILLING OF THE TROUGH WITH RISING GEOPOTENTIAL THICKNESS
SUPPORTS NOT AS EXTREME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. STILL COLD,
HOWEVER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WINDCHILLS SAT/SUN NIGHT
RANGING 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OR PRECIPITATION EVENT ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALES
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON ARE ALSO IN PLAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, TRANSITIONING TO LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER LAKE HURON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LEADING TO A LAKE SUPERIOR-NORTHER LAKE HURON
CONNECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY, AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES. VERY COLD AIRMASS
(NEGATIVE MID 20S AT 850 MB) WILL LEAD TO LAKE INDUCED TROUGH ON
THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH TOWARDS MBS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. AN UPTICK IN SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z
AFFECTING MBS AND FNT FIRST. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO PERSIST AFTER 12Z
AS THE FRONT FOLLOWS THE LEAD BURST OF SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGS
GREATER ACTIVATION OF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY. GREATEST
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 17Z TO
22Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL GUST TOWARDS 25 KNOTS AS THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL ARRIVES THEN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST WHILE REMAINING
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY AROUND 09-12Z
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MOST LIKELY TO MVFR, THOUGH
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LAKE
EFFECT RAMPS UP AGAIN.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH
BY AROUND 09Z TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ048-049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....AA
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