896
FXUS63 KDTX 280437
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1137 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMUM WIND CHILL OF -8 TO -13 DEGREES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE.
- WINDCHILLS THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE AND WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE.
AVIATION
AN ONGOING BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST IS ATTEMPTING
TO DRIVE THE VFR BASED LAKE MI STRATUS DECK BACK INTO SE MI. WHILE
THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR NOW OVER SE MI MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS,
GOOD DUCTING UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING
THESE CLOUDS INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE DEGREE OF
COLD AIR WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER WILL EASILY SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES
OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK. A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL TARGET MORE PERSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND PTK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
LIKELY SHIFTING ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SLIGHTLY VEERING FLOW SHIFTS THE BETTER
CONVERGENCE AXIS SOUTH.
FOR DTW...SOME FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS INTO METRO
OVERNIGHT. THE INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY OVERALL IMPACTS
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
DISCUSSION...
RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION WELL UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS
NORTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTAL PASSAGE. POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES AND
MOISTURE DEPTH, BEFORE STEADILY DECLINING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES GREATER INROADS WITH TIME. CORE OF
COLDEST AIR DESCENDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, MARKED BY 850 MB
TEMPS OF -22 TO -23C. NOTABLE DRYING DURING THIS WINDOW OFFERS A
PERIOD OF LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND PROVIDES THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BACK
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION EMERGES, DRAWING THE
HIGHER PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PROSPECTIVE CLOUD COVER, THIS WILL PLACE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOOR ON
PROJECTED LOWS. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LOW TEMPERATURE
AROUND ZERO, WITH A PERSISTENT 5KT GRADIENT AFFORDING A MINIMUM IN
WIND CHILL GENERALLY AROUND -10F FOR THE MORNING PERIOD.
SIMILAR LEVEL OF ARCTIC COLD NOTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD WILL OFFER A MODEST DEGREE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
MOISTURE QUALITY REMAINS RATHER LEAN, BUT EXISTING LAKE MICHIGAN
MOISTURE FLUX IN COLD LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL WORK TO
SUPPLEMENT THIS ASCENT. BROADER SIGNAL OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS
TARGETING THE M-59 TO I-94 CORRIDOR FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AS DIURNAL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY AREA OF FOCUS ACROSS THE THUMB AS A TRAILING
ARCTIC WAVE GLANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIMITED
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OVERALL WITH THE CLOUD LAYER ATOP THE DGZ,
BUT A LOCALIZED DUSTING TO HALF INCH PLAUSIBLE SHOULD A MORE FOCUSED
RESPONSE EMERGE. DAYLIGHT TEMPS PEAKING IN THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILL
HOVERING AROUND ZERO. PROJECTED MINIMUM WIND CHILL AT THIS STAGE
REMAINS LARGELY INSIDE THE -10 TO 15F RANGE.
THE UNRELENTING ARCTIC COLD WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS TO END THE WORK
WEEK. HUDSON BAY POLAR LOW WILL SHEAR SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME,
PROVIDING ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FEATURING AN 850
MB TEMPERATURE AOB -23C. SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS NOTED LATE LAST WEEK,
THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF HIGH MAGNITUDE COLD WITH
WIND CHILL BELOW ZERO DEGREES BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR HEADLINE WORTHY WIND CHILL READINGS
/BELOW -15F/ AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH GENERAL
STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN LIMITS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THIS
PERIOD, BUT WILL MONITOR THE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OFF LAKE HURON TO
SEE IF A RESPONSE CAN MANIFEST OFF THE INCREASINGLY ICE COVERED
WATERS AND GLANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB REGION. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES CONTROL
WITHIN A GRADUALLY MODERATING ARCTIC THERMAL PROFILE.
MARINE...
BRIEF WESTERLY GUSTS TO GALES POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT. OTHERWISE, POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING PEAK OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING, AND THEN EASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS EXHAUSTED. NONE-THE-LESS,
LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER LAKE
HURON WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS LEADING TO A LAKE SUPERIOR-NORTHERN
LAKE HURON CONNECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS, AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND FRIGID AIRMASS ARRIVES. VERY COLD AIRMASS
(NEGATIVE MID 20S AT 850 MB) WILL LEAD TO LAKE INDUCED TROUGH ON
THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS. SLOWLY MODERATING AIRMASS
AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR
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