880
FXUS63 KDTX 281121
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
621 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
- POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE.
- WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DROP INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE, AND THEN 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
CLOUD BEARING LAYER BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4.0 KFT AGL HAS BEEN GOOD FOR
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING SINCE THE STRATOCUMULUS HAS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA. SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE HAS
OCCURRED IN TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -20C. WITH THE MOISTURE DUCTED
BELOW THE INVERSION AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW, PREFERENCE IS TO
CARRY PREVAILING -SN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A
LARGER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY BETWEEN 23-03Z AS LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE
MAY ADVECT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. MODEL SIGNAL
SUPPORTS SCATTERED CEILINGS TONIGHT OR CLEARING.
FOR DTW...FLURRIES OR LIGHT IS EXPECTED AT DTW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY.
* HIGH IN SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE
* LOW IN CEILINGS OF 200 FT OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO 1/2SM.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
DISCUSSION...
A VERY COLD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, FEATURING
850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 20C RANGE.
LAKE MICHIGAN STRATOCUMULUS SPREADS EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD HOLD INITIAL WIND CHILLS
AT (OR ABOVE) CURRENT VALUES INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF AROUND
MINUS 10F. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN
NOAM TROUGH AXIS WILL FACILITATE A PERIOD OF CVA. A LEAN, BUT
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST, THETAE PLUME SPREADS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LAKE-AUGMENTED SNOW SHOWERS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE CWA, CORRESPONDING
WITH THE HIGHER POPS (BETWEEN I-94 AND I-69). OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, CONDITIONAL ON AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
THE MOST FREQUENT INTERSECTION OF LAKE BANDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE A FLUFFY QUARTER INCH. ADDITIONAL FORCING MARKED
BY A QUICK GLANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE THUMB NOTED IN SEVERAL
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, SUPPORTING A LAGGED LIGHT SNOW RESPONSE FOR
THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING THEN LEADS TO NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
REDUCED WESTERLY GRADIENT WIND AND LOWS DROPPING AOB 0F. THIS SETS
UP MARGINAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR, OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN, MINUS 15F.
GOVERNING 505 DAM 500 MB LOW INTERFACES WITH A 150 KNOT JET STREAK
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AFTER A RETROGRADING
POLAR WAVE DESCENDS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER HUDSON BAY. THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD WEAKENS AND VEERS NNW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH DECREASES
THE EFFICIENCY AND LONGEVITY OF LAKE EFFECT. STILL, WEAK ASCENT
WITHIN A WELL-MIXED COLD LOWER TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-END CHANCES FOR FLURRY GENERATION. THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
BROADENS AND SHEARS ZONALLY AS THE COLD RESERVOIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD
WITH TIME ON THURSDAY. THIS EVENTUALLY USHERS IN A REINFORCING BLAST
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR, ATTRIBUTED TO THE STILL PARTIALLY UNFROZEN
GREAT LAKES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS. SOME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REQUIRE COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES.
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CARVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WITH A HIGHLY AGEOSTROPHIC BASE, BUT LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
DYNAMICS LOCALLY PRECLUDES ANY FORCED PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS AMIDST NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORIES ARCING BACK INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH SIMILAR OVERNIGHT/MORNING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
AND ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS. IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 1050 MB
TRACKS DUE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY KEEPING ARCTIC AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
THIS MORNING CONTINUE TODAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND FRIGID
AIRMASS ARRIVES THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
OVER LAKE HURON AS IT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VERY COLD AIRMASS (NEGATIVE MID 20S AT 850 MB) WILL LEAD TO LAKE
INDUCED TROUGH AND CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
TO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS. SLOWLY MODERATING AIRMASS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KGK
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