859
FXUS63 KDTX 290432
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1132 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DROP INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE, AND THEN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- INTERVALS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES
DURING LATE WEEK PERIOD. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AVIATION
ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS
PRIOR TO TAF ISSUANCE. DECREASING WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL VFR BASED
CLOUDS WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO SE MI THURS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF VFR BASED STRATO CU.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
DISCUSSION...
OVERLAKE CONVECTIVE DEPTH ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR
PROVING EFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING A STEADY DOWNSTREAM FLUX OF LAKE
MOISTURE IN WESTERLY FLOW. PRODUCTIVE LAKE CLOUD TOWARD GENERATING
INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES GIVEN A SATURATED
PROFILE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN -15 AND -20C. ONGOING
ACTIVITY REMAINS FIXATED WITHIN THE TYPICALLY PRONE I-69 TO I-94
CORRIDOR, WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING AS FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK IMPULSE. BRIEF PERIOD OF GREATER MID LEVEL FORCED
ASCENT TIED TO THE WAVE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME MINOR LIGHT
SNOW PRODUCTION ACROSS MAINLY THE THUMB THIS EVENING AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION GOING FORWARD WILL REMAIN MINOR. ATTENTION
THEN SHIFTS TO OVERNIGHT CLOUD/WIND TRENDS AND EFFECTIVE PROJECTION
OF LOW TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILL THU MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS
A MIXED SIGNAL ON DEGREE AND TIMING OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT, WITH A
SUBSET OF THE SOLUTION SPACE MAINTAINING SOME DEGREE OF LAKE CLOUD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO, WITH A TILT
IN TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OFTEN PROVING ADEQUATE TO ALLOW
THE DRY AMBIENT ARCTIC PROFILE TO TAKE GREATER HOLD. FORECAST WILL
LEAN INTO THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SOME AREAS OF CLEARING, WITH
LOWS REACHING ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN A 5 KNOT
GRADIENT, THIS WILL PARK MINIMUM WIND CHILL IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH MAGNITUDE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MARK THE
LATE WEEK CONDITIONS. GOVERNING POLAR LOW CURRENTLY FIXATED OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL EJECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH THE
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER AND ATTENDANT COLD CORE ARRIVING LOCALLY
FRIDAY MORNING. COLDEST OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MINIMUM IN MORNING
WIND CHILL BELOW -15F FOR SOME/ALL OF LOCATIONS FRI/SAT MORNINGS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE PROJECTION, AS
CLOUD COVER COULD PROVE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE NOCTURNAL COOLING
RESPONSE. THE PERIODIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH ABOVE 850 MB WILL
MAINTAIN SOME INTERVALS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY OR CONCERTED AREAS OF FORCED
ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE WITNESSING GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF WINDOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
HURON INTO THE EASTERN THUMB MAY EMERGE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
AS FLOW TRAJECTORY BECOMES NORTH-NORTHEAST.
RESIDENT ARCTIC COLD MODERATES ONLY MINIMALLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
PERIOD AS MEAN THICKNESSES SEE SOME RECOVERY WITH THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SUB ZERO WIND CHILL AGAIN PROJECTED FOR SUNDAY
MORNING, WHILE DAYLIGHT TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY -
OR STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. POSSIBLE LAKE HURON
MOISTURE FLUX MAY AGAIN PROVIDE SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OFFER DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT
TO THE EXTREME NOTED RECENTLY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TIED TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
TRAILING ARCTIC LOBE SET TO ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE...
THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALLOWING ARCTIC
AIR TO HOLD ACROSS THE WATERS. FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BUT MAINTAIN
STRENGTH, 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS, WITH THIS FLOW HOLDING
THROUGH FRIDAY. TROUGH INFLUENCE KEEPS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACTIVE THOUGH DIRECTED AT THE CANADIAN WATERS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
SOME AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME IN
THE ICE-FREE WATERS HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG WINDS PREVENT ANY
WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM DEVELOPING. SLOWLY MODERATING
AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KDK
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