135
FXUS63 KDTX 291743
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS; WIND CHILLS NEAR 20 BELOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
THUMB AND TRI-CITIES FRIDAY MORNING.
- INTERVALS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TIMES TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AVIATION
A WEAK FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MI WHILE AN
EQUALLY WEAK RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES WEST TO EAST ALONG IT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOGETHER THEY SUPPORT A MINOR INCREASE
IN LIGHT SNOW THAT BECOMES CAPABLE OF MVFR VISIBILITY POCKETS
PRIMARILY IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILING HAS LOWER
PREDICTABILITY BUT GENERALLY HOVERS AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD IN
AND NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LINGERS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
UNTIL IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWARD
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT REDUCES POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BUT REINFORCES
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS WITH A CONTINUED DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE UNDERWAY THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS AS A 500 MB LOW GETS
DISLODGED AND SHEARED BY A RETROGRADING INVERTED SHORTWAVE POLAR
TROUGH AND A 150+ KNOT UNIFIED JET CORE. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD AIR
RESERVOIR FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIRMASS FEATURES A MINIMUM 850 MB
TEMPERATURE OF MINUS 30C, THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MODERATE THE
COLDEST AIR UPON ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, GENERALLY BETWEEN
MINUS 23C TO MINUS 20C. SLIGHT MOISTENING AND COOLING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOWS FOR A DIURNAL RESPONSE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY, LIKELY IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED FASHION LATER IN THE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD DECREASES. BETTER POTENTIAL RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOWFALL, AFTER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THETAE PLUME RELEASES SOUTHEASTWARD. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DEVELOPS, ALTHOUGH LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WILL
AFFECT HOW CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS GET. MODEL DATA HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND CLOUDIER FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE MAIN
EXCEPTION BEING THE THUMB, AND POSSIBLY THE TRI-CITIES. FURTHER
SOUTH, THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH/EXCEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE LOWER. A FEW ADDITIONAL FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH A LOWER COLUMN PERTURBATION, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT, IF ANY.
SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AS THE
INVERTED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CARVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
ZONALLY ORIENTED COLLAPSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN CAUSING FLOW TO TURN NORTHERLY. YET ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AS STEEP
SURFACE-BASED LAPSE RATES ACTIVATE A SHALLOW SUPERSATURATED CLOUD
LAYER (WRT ICE). HIGHS STAY PARKED NEAR THE 10F MARK, SUPPORTED BY
FLOW TRAJECTORIES ARCING BACK INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS
UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKES AN ABRUPT SOUTHWARD TURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE 1050 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS CONTINUES THE ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH MINUS DOUBLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD RESIDE
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN, THEREFORE COLD HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. LLJ WINDS INCREASE, OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, ON SATURDAY
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OFF THE HURON BASIN FOR THE THUMB,
AND POSSIBLY FURTHER INLAND. HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR FLOW-PARALLEL
BANDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. THE LAKE-MODIFIED AIR
SHOULD ALSO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER TEENS. HEIGHT RISES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER WILL RESIDE INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MARINE...
THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALLOWING ARCTIC
AIR TO HOLD ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS HOLD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-
20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. TROUGH INFLUENCE KEEPS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVE THOUGH DIRECTED AT THE CANADIAN
WATERS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE ICE-FREE WATERS HOWEVER LACK
OF STRONG WINDS PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM
DEVELOPING. SLOWLY MODERATING AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK
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