578
FXUS63 KDTX 300428
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1128 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
WINDS CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE.
- INTERVALS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
THE REGION OF VFR BASED STRATUS EXTENDING FROM FNT TO DET AND AREAS
WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK SFC RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS SE MI. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, LIKELY PRIOR TO 12Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MORNING, A LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE 6 TO
8 KNOT RANGE. SLIGHT MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION MAY ALLOW SOME VFR
BASED DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND DURATION BY
THE VERY DRY AMBIENT ARCTIC AIRMASS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT. LOW FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
DISCUSSION...
A SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER IS OBSERVED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOISTURE DELINEATION CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
ROUGHLY TRAVERSE CITY-PONTIAC-DETROIT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
CLEARING SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT
FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WITH PARTIAL CLEARING INTO THE
NORTHERN SUBURBS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS AS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE COLDEST WINDS CHILLS IN THE THUMB REGION DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS (AROUND 10 KNOTS), AND CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. OPTED TO EXCLUDE WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE FROM THE ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT STREAM OF STRATOCU OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL LIMIT
RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD CLEARING SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH,
THE HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS STARTED TO EMERGE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MODELS GENERATING A WEAK LOW IN ITS VICINITY OVER
WESTERN MICHIGAN. THIS OCCURS AS A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS AND
SHEARING VORTICITY ADVECTION SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE RESULT IS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE GRADIENT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
PREVALENT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING, GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OF M-59.
WANING MOISTURE QUALITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE POST-
DEFORMATION REGIME AS WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND DRY
ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO SE MICHIGAN. EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. THIS KEEPS SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN PLAY FOR MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN COMPLICATES THE WIND CHILL
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACTIVATING LAKE HURON MOISTURE FLUX. CLOUD-BEARING LAYER LOOKS TO
FALL WITHIN OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH GREATEST CHANCES NEAR THE
SHORELINE. INTERIOR LOCATIONS (WEST OF I-75) ARE LIKELY TO SEE
CLEARER SKIES AND THUS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH -15 DEGREES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS DEFINES A SHARP,
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THAT EVENTUALLY PHASES AND TILTS WITH
THE BROADER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COMPACT
PV ANOMALY ANCHORED TO THIS TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AS IT CARVES INTO SOUTHERN CONUS BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SUPPORTS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST, BUT
KEEPS SE MICHIGAN ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
(1050MB). THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO IMPACT SE
MICHIGAN UNTIL THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE A MODEST CLIMB IN DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW 20S
SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH H8 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOUT 10 C.
THIS WILL END AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF OVER A WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES
DID NOT RISE ABOVE 20 DEGREES.
MARINE...
THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALLOWING ARCTIC
AIR TO HOLD ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS HOLD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-
20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. TROUGH INFLUENCE KEEPS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVE THOUGH DIRECTED AT THE CANADIAN
WATERS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE ICE-FREE WATERS HOWEVER LACK
OF STRONG WINDS PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM
DEVELOPING. SLOWLY MODERATING AIRMASS AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR GRADUALLY WEAKENING WINDS FALLING AT
OR BELOW 20KTS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
BUT ASIDE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE
IMPACTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN FOLLOWS
FOR MIDWEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......KDK
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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