312
FXUS63 KDTX 301718
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1218 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON IMPACT THE EASTERN THUMB
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED 1-3"
ACCUMULATIONS.
- SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY LEADS TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERSISTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND IS
GOVERNING VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WIND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING COMPONENT OF
SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS HAVING LIMITED COVERAGE WITHIN THE SURFACE
RIDGE. A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS NORTH THE SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH SOME LAKE AGGREGATE ENHANCEMENT. THIS BRINGS A MORE ORGANIZED
CLOUD INCREASE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A FEW HOURS OF INTERMITTENT MVFR
VISIBILITY THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE MBS TO FNT AREA. LARGER SCALE
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.
FLURRIES DRIFT INLAND TOWARD THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR WITHIN A
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUD FIELD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE
TONIGHT, AND HIGH SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS NORTH OF M-59 HAVE ALLOWED/WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-59 AS WELL, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
BASICALLY CALM, WE WILL CONTINUE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AS SOME
LIGHT WINDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHEAR AXIS WILL KICK IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR WARMING AT THE 850 MB LAYER, AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE
-10 C BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, BEFORE THIS WARMING OCCURS,
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OVER THE
THUMB REGION WITH THE PROLONG NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE WITH PRETTY GOOD 925 MB LIFT AND SUPERSATURATION WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN THE DGZ. PLANNING ON CALLING FOR LOCALIZED 1-3"
INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION. EXPECT ICE
COVER TO LIMIT THE MOISTURE FLUX, LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
SATURDAY MORNING, AND MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK. OTHERWISE, AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
PROBABLE ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TRACKS
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. COUNTING ON CLOUDS TO HOLD
MIN TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER, THE EARLY EVENING MAY START
OUT CLEAR SOUTH OF M-59, WHICH PROBABLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CRATER
AT OR BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY, BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY WHEN CLOUDS ARRIVE.
EVEN SO, DO NOT SEE WIND CHILLS REACHING 15 BELOW ZERO DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS, THUS NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PLAN.
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS, AS GUIDANCE TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES
IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 20S FOR SUNDAY.
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON
MONDAY, AS A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS OF 850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP
TO 2 G/KG (PER 00Z EURO) MOVES THROUGH. LACK OF SURFACE REFLECTION
AND MODEST FORCING SUGGESTS AN INCH OR LESS, AS BULK OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE 5 HUNDRETHS OR LESS OF QPF.
MODEST WARMING TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 20S.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN TOWARD FREEZING ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...
THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALLOWING ARCTIC
AIR TO HOLD ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS HOLD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-
20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. TROUGH INFLUENCE
KEEPS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVE THOUGH DIRECTED AT THE
CANADIAN WATERS AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SOME AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ICE-FREE WATERS HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG WINDS
PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM DEVELOPING. SLOWLY
MODERATING AIRMASS AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWS FOR GRADUALLY WEAKENING WINDS FALLING AT OR BELOW 20KTS FOR
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY BUT ASIDE FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS. ANOTHER
HIGH DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK
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