912
FXUS63 KDTX 302249
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
549 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT THE EASTERN THUMB REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLD TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILL RANGING BETWEEN 0 AND 15 BELOW.
- SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY LEADS TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERSISTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARILY LOW END VFR BASED
CLOUDS WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR. GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH AND WEAK FORCING, AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST, MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE
HURON WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR BASED CLOUDS ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
FOR DTW...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR INTERVALS OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ONE WILL BE FOCUSED BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
ASSOCIATED THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WILL BE LATE SAT
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH INSTANCES.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
DISCUSSION...
A ZONALLY ORIENTED UPPER SHEAR AXIS IS PASSING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
STATELINE WITH A TRAILING BUBBLE OF SUBSIDENCE OFFERING A WINDOW OF
SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE ALREADY ARRIVING ACROSS THE THUMB AND MID MI BEHIND THIS DRY
POCKET AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE THAT TRACKS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
TEENS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO BY LATE EVENING FOR AREAS
THAT STAY CLOUD FREE - MAINLY SOUTH OF M-59. THE INBOUND CLOUD THEN
HELPS INSULATE AND HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.
STEADY BUT LIGHT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND IS PROJECTED TO HOLD WIND
CHILL IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE TONIGHT, SO NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED. REFS HOURLY PROBABILITIES INDICATE <10% CHANCE FOR WIND
CHILL AT OR BELOW -15. HREF IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WIND
MAGNITUDE, AND SHOWS A 20% CHANCE FOR THOSE CLEAR AREAS LATE THIS
EVENING, AND UP TO 40% CHANCE PRE-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND
PICKS UP SLIGHTLY.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
NORTHEAST WIND OVER LAKE HURON WILL CAUSE THE STALLED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE EASTERN THUMB. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT
ICE COVERAGE IN THE NEARSHORE AREA, THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
BRUSH THE COAST WITH THIS BAND, SO KEPT HIGH POPS TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS MODELED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW 5 KFT AND FAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION LASTS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. MODEL 925MB OMEGA FIELDS GENERALLY
TARGET THE HURON CITY/PORT HOPE/HARBOR BEACH VICINITY AROUND AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE PORT SANILAC/LEXINGTON
AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THE FORCING STALLS BEFORE
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IS POSITIONED
ALONG THE SHORELINE BETWEEN HARBOR BEACH AND LEXINGTON, PER THE 12Z
REFS GUIDANCE. THIS ENSEMBLE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE PORT HURON AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS CARRIES
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS MOST GUIDANCE IS MORE TRANSIENT WITH ANY BANDING
THAT FAR SOUTH. REFS ALSO OFFERS A 10% PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE INDICATING A VERY LOCALIZED INSTANCE SHOULD IT
OCCUR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI, MAINLY JUST FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE A DUSTING, AND
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE INLAND AREAS OF THE
THUMB.
A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWS A SURFACE RIDGE
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS APART FROM ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN THUMB ON SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN PERVASIVE EVEN INLAND MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLEARING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE AREA UP FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT. LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND -5, AND A LIGHT
GRADIENT RESULTS IN WIND CHILL IN THE -5 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. BURGEONING WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH A BOOST
FROM ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SEND TEMPS INTO
THE 20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON - FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JAN 22 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
A SHEARING SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY, THOUGH
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH
WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK
IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, BUT HIGHS IN THE 20S REMAIN FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LATEST NBM SHOWING A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR
OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE...
THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALLOWING ANOTHER
MID-UPPER WAVE TO DIVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. RESULT OF
WHICH IS A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL WEAKENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS HOLD 15-20KTS AND
GUSTS 20-25KTS. NORTHERN EDGE OF PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT (<15KT) WINDS. A
WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE DAY MONDAY BUT ASIDE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS, BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WITH ACCOMPANYING WINDS
HOLDING AT OR BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THEN FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KDK
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