532
FXUS63 KDTX 311737
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1237 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT THE EASTERN THUMB REGION TODAY
WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS.
- COLD TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 F TO
+5 F RANGE.
- SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY LEADS TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERSISTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
STEADY MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES OFF LAKE HURON WITHIN PREVAILING
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SOME INTERVALS OF FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
CLEARING LINE NORTHWEST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD WILL REACH MBS/FNT BY EARLY EVENING AS THE RESIDENT DRY
ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT TAKES GREATER HOLD. LESS CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF CLEARING FOR PTK AND DETROIT AIRSPACE, AS
PERSISTENT AND/OR RENEWED MOISTURE FLUX BACK INTO THIS CORRIDOR
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT, WHILE ALLOWING
FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MAINTAINING LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
DISCUSSION...
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN,
AS A SURFACE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO JAMES BAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. BEFORE WE GET THERE, WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION TODAY WITH
PROLONGED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO STREAM INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO -10 C BY THIS EVENING.
NAM SOUNDINGS STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THUMB THIS MORNING WITH DECENT 925 MB LIFT AND SUPERSATURATION
WITH RESPECT TO ICE IN THE DGZ FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS 3-4 KFT, EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
LIMITING MOISTURE FLUX, COUPLED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF LATE
TODAY.
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT TONIGHT, A
GOOD RADIATING NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WINDS GO CALM WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. AS SUCH,
LOADED THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE (-10 F TO + 5 F) FOR MINS TONIGHT,
WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE REGIONAL GEM.
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/NARROW UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS MINIMAL ACCUMULATION, IF AT ALL, AS EVEN A
COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF QPF MAY BE HARD TO COME BY.
500 MB LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL DELAY/OFFSET THE WARMING TREND
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE 20S.
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS/WESTERN CANADA FOR THE WORK WEEK, WITH A STRONG PACIFIC WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK, PARTICULARLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER. HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS 4 TO 4.5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TRACKS INTO THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EURO ENSEMBLES INDICATING AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF QPF. THUS, A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS PEAKING NEAR
20KTS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
BRINGS LIGHT (<15KT) WINDS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER
ARRIVES LATE DAY MONDAY BUT ASIDE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WITH ACCOMPANYING WINDS HOLDING AT OR
BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN
FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK
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