317
FXUS63 KDTX 312256
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
556 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING BETWEEN -15F TO -5F.
- SUNSHINE TOMORROW LEADS TO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERSISTING NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH.
AVIATION
THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SE MI.
BASED ON EXTRAPOLOATION FROM SATELLITE THE CLEARING SHOULD ADVANCE
ACROSS THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS IN THE 00Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, SUBTLE VEERING OF THE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON TO THE NNE AFTER 00Z MAY DRIVE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR BASED LAKE
CLOUDS INTO THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH
HI RES GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT THIS THAT A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE WARRANTED
FOR PTK AND ALL THE DETROIT TERMINALS, WITH DET POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING THE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE RIDING
AND DRY AIR WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MI ON SUNDAY, SUPPORTING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHICH HAS AND WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER. SOME REINFORCEMENT OR
REINVIGORATION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF LAKE HURON REMAINS IN TACT, TAPPING INTO THE ICE FREE
AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL BASIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, WITH CLOUD FREE REGIONS QUICKLY
DROPPING TOWARDS THE 0 DEGREE MARK AND INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. INSULATION FROM LOW-LEVEL CLOUD WILL HOLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT ANY
CLEARING OBSERVED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS OR BELOW THE 0 DEGREE MARK. REGARDLESS, THE
TREND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES, AND COMMUNITIES SHOULD
EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE WIND CHILLS THAT RANGE BETWEEN -5 TO -15F
BEFORE DAYBREAK.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW WITH
RIDGE AXIS CENTERING RIGHT OVER MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ERODE ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER, BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE, WHERE
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP MAINTAIN SOME LINGER CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS FLOW FROM THE WEST. WEAK SOLAR INSOLATION WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S FOR A HIGH. COLD AGAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO OR
BELOW.
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EXTENDED PV FILAMENT WILL BRING SNOW
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SE MI FROM 11Z TO 18Z ON MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DEEP COLUMN DRY AIR
AND WEAK FORCING LOOKS TO KEEP SNOW TOTALS IN CHECK WITH THIS
INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW, UNDER AN INCH AND LIKELY TO A HALF-INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL INFLUENCE WILL HELP SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY UNDER
THE BACKDROP OF MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WHICH BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH CAN BRING LOCALIZED ENHANCED TOTALS TO AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING. LAKE EFFECT CHANCES TO END LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RENEWED LAKE EFFECT
CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER DECREASING H850 TEMPERATURES.
THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR SNOW CHANCES WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. PENDING THE FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW, THE STRONGER WEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING THE CHANCE TO SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK. THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER AN INCH, WITH NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA
SHOWING ~60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR GREATER.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH
BRINGS LIGHT (<15KT) WINDS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER
ARRIVES LATE DAY MONDAY BUT ASIDE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WITH ACCOMPANYING WINDS HOLDING AT OR
BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN
FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BRINGING QUIET MARINE WEATHER.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
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