019
FXUS63 KDTX 010850
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING MOSTLY BETWEEN -15F TO
-5F.
- MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 20S
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY-MID
WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. BETTER ACCUMULATION FOR AN INCH OR GREATER AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. OBSERVATIONS HAVE
ALL OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION BELOW ZERO.
THE LIGHTER WINDS ARE BRINGING WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -15 DEGREE
RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS DROPPING BELOW -15 DEGREES AT TIMES.
A RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
CENTERING OVER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE DRY
AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE WHERE
NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND A BOOST OF A FEW DEGREES AT
850MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH MINIMUM WINDS CHILLS FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST FROM ABOUT 6 AM AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAK. ADD IN THE LACK OF
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION (SPECIFIC HUMIDITY LESS THAN 2 G/KG AND
QPF OF MAYBE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) WITH THE DRY RESIDENT AIRMASS AND
OVERALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WITH A LOW PROBABILITY TO ACHIEVE ACCUMULATION OF A HALF
INCH BY THE EVENING. THE PASSING OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A WEST TO
NORTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WIND SHIFT MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING OFFERS A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECTS SHOWERS/FLURRIES. A
SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
LAKE EFFECT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TOWARD SATURATION WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN THE LOWER PART OF THE DGZ WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST FLURRY POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS DRY
AIR IN THE REGION WILL PERSIST. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID WEEK HOLDING MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH SOME SPOTS MAYBE
HITTING THE UPPER 20S.
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PRESENTING THE
BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE EXISTS, WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEFORE THE BETTER
FORCING WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
NBM PROBABILITY TO ACHIEVE 1 INCH OR MORE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE
LATEST RUN TO 70% OR GREATER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM AND LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -20C OR BELOW. THIS WOULD
BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS TO -10 DEGREES OR BELOW.
MARINE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS LIGHT (<15KT) WINDS TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE DAY MONDAY BUT ASIDE
FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WITH
ACCOMPANYING WINDS HOLDING AT OR BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BRINGING QUIET
MARINE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
AVIATION...
A RESIDUAL MOISTURE PLUME OFF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON HAS SUSTAINED
INTERVALS OF MVFR BASED CLOUDS INTO PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA IS INDICATING THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING, WITH PERHAPS THE ICE COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
BASIN OFFERING SOME LIMITING FACTORS IN THE MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKE. THESE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY NOT LAST MUCH
INTO THE NEW TAF PERIOD IF AT ALL. SURFACE RIDING AND DRY AIR WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MI ON SUNDAY, SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SC
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