737
FXUS63 KDTX 012036
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-END TO LIKELY CHANCES (50-60%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HOLD UNDER AN INCH,
LIKELY A DUSTING TO A HALF-INCH.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT LIKELY CHANCE FOR SNOW ENTERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE AXIS HAS MAINTAINED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, WHICH HAS BROUGHT A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS SE
MI. FLOW REMAINS QUASI-BAROTROPIC WITH ONLY MODEST/DELAYED COLD
ADVECTION, THE PEAK WHICH ARRIVES AFTER PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD, BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.
A SHORTWAVE AND EXTENDED LOBE OF VORTICITY NOW EXITING THE PLAINS
WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER
END TO LIKELY CHANCES (50-60%) FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE ANTECEDENT DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FORCING PRECLUDES ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH TOTALS HOLDING UNDER AN INCH, LIKELY RANGING
BETWEEN A DUSTING UP TO A HALF-INCH BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z AS THE
FEATURE PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTING LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN APPEAR LESS SUPPORTIVE THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATION FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER,
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE CAN SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY. A BETTER RESPONSE AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF ACCUMULATION WILL
BE ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB TUESDAY MORNING, TIED TO
PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND THE
CONTINUED VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-69. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE QUALITY
THROUGH 5KFT WILL BE POOR WHICH AGAIN LIMITS CONFIDENCE FOR
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID 20S FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT LIKELY (60-
70%) CHANCE FOR SNOW ENTERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS. PENDING THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MILDER AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING CHANCES TO SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA REMAINS STEADY FOR
50-70% CHANCES TO SEE AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ENHANCEMENT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS NEAR ZERO AND HIGHS IN
THE TEENS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS LIGHT (<15KT) WINDS TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE DAY MONDAY BUT ASIDE
FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WITH
ACCOMPANYING WINDS HOLDING AT OR BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BRINGING QUIET
MARINE WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
AVIATION...
STRETCH OF GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS MAY
DRAW A LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CLOUD COVER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MAINLY MBS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FAVORED UNTIL HIGH BASED CLOUD ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN INBOUND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW STARTING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CIGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH MONDAY.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW MONDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....MR
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