036
FXUS63 KDTX 012247
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
547 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING BETWEEN -15F TO -5F.
- MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 20S
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S PERSISTING NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. BETTER ACCUMULATION FOR AN INCH OR GREATER AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER SE MI THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL SUSTAIN CLEAR SKIES WHILE THE EASTWARD
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z MONDAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WEAK ASCENT WITHIN A NARROW DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL WARRANT LIGHT SNOW INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS. WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING AROUND 13Z. LIMITED FORCING INDICATES JUST A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION MONDAY MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE AXIS HAS MAINTAINED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, WHICH HAS BROUGHT A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS SE
MI. FLOW REMAINS QUASI-BAROTROPIC WITH ONLY MODEST/DELAYED COLD
ADVECTION, THE PEAK WHICH ARRIVES AFTER PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS
A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD, BUT NOT AS COLD AS
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS.
A SHORTWAVE AND EXTENDED LOBE OF VORTICITY NOW EXITING THE PLAINS
WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER
END TO LIKELY CHANCES (50-60%) FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE ANTECEDENT DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FORCING PRECLUDES ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH TOTALS HOLDING UNDER AN INCH, LIKELY RANGING
BETWEEN A DUSTING UP TO A HALF-INCH BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z AS THE
FEATURE PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL INTRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTING LAKE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN APPEAR LESS SUPPORTIVE THAN
YESTERDAY, WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATION FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER,
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE CAN SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY. A BETTER RESPONSE AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME BETTER SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF ACCUMULATION WILL
BE ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB TUESDAY MORNING, TIED TO
PROGRESSION OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND THE
CONTINUED VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-69. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE QUALITY
THROUGH 5KFT WILL BE POOR WHICH AGAIN LIMITS CONFIDENCE FOR
ACCUMULATION. DAYTIME HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID 20S FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT LIKELY (60-
70%) CHANCE FOR SNOW ENTERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS. PENDING THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR MILDER AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING CHANCES TO SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA REMAINS STEADY FOR
50-70% CHANCES TO SEE AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ENHANCEMENT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS NEAR ZERO AND HIGHS IN
THE TEENS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS LIGHT (<15KT) WINDS TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE DAY MONDAY BUT ASIDE
FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BRINGS MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WITH
ACCOMPANYING WINDS HOLDING AT OR BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER HIGH DROPPING
OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN FOLLOWS FOR MIDWEEK BRINGING QUIET
MARINE WEATHER.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
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