501
FXUS63 KDTX 020829
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-END TO LIKELY CHANCES (50-60%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HOLD UNDER AN INCH, LIKELY
A DUSTING TO A HALF-INCH.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT LIKELY CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EXTENDED PV FILAMENT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE FIRST WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
FOLLOW. SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 7 AM THIS MORNING TO ABOUT 1-2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RESIDENT DRY AIRMASS AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEAGER QPF
ON THE ORDER OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A DUSTING TO A
HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION.
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE WEST WITH THE PASSING OF THE
TROUGH OPENING THE DOOR FOR LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THE EVENING. INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO A
STRONG LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE, BUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
SUPPORT FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WILL OFFER ANOTHER SHOT AT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING WEAK COLD FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-69, SO BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE NORTH OF I-69 PRIOR TO 7 AM WITH A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LACK
OF MOISTURE PRECLUDES MENTION OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, SIMILAR TO TODAY/TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE OCCASIONAL INSIGNIFICANT FLURRIES.
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL EMERGE OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ACCUMULATIONS STILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THE ASSOCIATED LOW, WHICH STILL HAS SOME VARIATION IN THE ENSEMBLE
SPACE. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A GENERAL 50-70% CHANCE TO
ACHIEVE 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVER THE
COURSE OF FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN COME CRASHING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO -20C
AND BELOW BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO -10 DEGREES AND BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SIMILAR STORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS ORGANIZE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING
TOWARDS 15-20KTS AS A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
SLIDES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATTER HALF OF THE DAY BRINGING
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WITH MOST WATERS SEEING GUSTS
REMAINING IN THE 15-20KT RANGE, THOUGH SOME LOWER 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH. HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THEN EXPANDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER (<15KT) WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOIST AXIS. THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT ARRIVAL TO
THE MOISTURE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. DUE TO SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR,
CEILINGS MAY NOT DROP TO MVFR UNTIL ROUGHLY 15Z. THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE ASCENT WILL ONLY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING AROUND 13Z. LIMITED FORCING INDICATES JUST A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION MONDAY MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW MONDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SC
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