956
FXUS63 KDTX 020943
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
443 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-END TO LIKELY CHANCES (50-60%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HOLD UNDER AN INCH, LIKELY
A DUSTING TO A HALF-INCH.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT LIKELY CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR SUPPORTS VERY LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING 11Z-14Z.
ALL SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR/POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR SNOW
MID-LATE MORNING, WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS HALF AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN LOW CLOUDS
(MVFR/LOW VFR) AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN SITES OF MBS/FNT.
FOR DTW...VERY LIGHT SNOW ON TRACK TO ARRIVE CLOSE TO 13Z, WITH
CIGS/VISIBILITIES THEN QUICKLY LOWERING INTO MVFR. THE LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW TAPERS OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS A
FLURRY OR TWO THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE
ENOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKING IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO ALLOW
FOR PERIODS OF CEILING FREE/SCATTERED CLOUDS. BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AND FLURRIES TUESDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PASSES THROUGH.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY, MEDIUM TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND EXTENDED PV FILAMENT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE FIRST WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
FOLLOW. SNOWFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 7 AM THIS MORNING TO ABOUT 1-2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RESIDENT DRY AIRMASS AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEAGER QPF
ON THE ORDER OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS SHOULD KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A DUSTING TO A
HALF INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION.
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE WEST WITH THE PASSING OF THE
TROUGH OPENING THE DOOR FOR LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THE EVENING. INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO A
STRONG LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE, BUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
SUPPORT FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS PRETTY LOW TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WILL OFFER ANOTHER SHOT AT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING WEAK COLD FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH OF I-69, SO BEST CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE NORTH OF I-69 PRIOR TO 7 AM WITH A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LACK
OF MOISTURE PRECLUDES MENTION OF ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK WHILE THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, SIMILAR TO TODAY/TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE OCCASIONAL INSIGNIFICANT FLURRIES.
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL EMERGE OUT OF HUDSON BAY WITH A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM OUT AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ACCUMULATIONS STILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THE ASSOCIATED LOW, WHICH STILL HAS SOME VARIATION IN THE ENSEMBLE
SPACE. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A GENERAL 50-70% CHANCE TO
ACHIEVE 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVER THE
COURSE OF FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN COME CRASHING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO -20C
AND BELOW BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO -10 DEGREES AND BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SIMILAR STORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
WINDS ORGANIZE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING
TOWARDS 15-20KTS AS A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
SLIDES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATTER HALF OF THE DAY BRINGING
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WITH MOST WATERS SEEING GUSTS
REMAINING IN THE 15-20KT RANGE, THOUGH SOME LOWER 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH. HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA THEN EXPANDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER (<15KT) WINDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
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