518
FXUS63 KDTX 161704
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1204 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS ON SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.
- A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TEMPERATURE DROP
BACK TOWARD MID/LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT, AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON (AOA 10 KNOTS) WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN SITES. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW SINKS SOUTH. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, CONTINUED SNOW MELT
TODAY, AND ELEVATED DEW PTS (ABOVE 32 DEGREES) WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IF WE GET
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR OR HOLD MAINLY IN MVFR, AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A MID
DECK OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, WHICH ARGUES
AGAINST DENSE FOG. HOWEVER, THERE ARE EVEN A FEW SOLUTIONS INDICATING
ENOUGH SATURATION DOWN LOW TO PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TAFS. ACROSS THE NORTH/MBS, THERE IS MODEST LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG. WENT WITH LOW MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE
VERY LEAST AND ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TAFS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CIG/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
* LOW FOR CIG AOA 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATE...
AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING WORK TOWARD ERODING
THE VERY DEEP NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION SHOWN ON THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING, TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A RAPID WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE
925MB TEMPS UP TOWARD +10C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DEGREE OF WARM AIR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY WITH A MELTING SNOW PACK AND FROZEN
GROUND, TYPICALLY RAISES UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW EFFECTIVE THE
MIXING WILL BE. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST WINDS, ANY SLIGHT OVER
ACHIEVEMENT OF MIXING COULD PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS TOWARD THE 60 DEGREE
MARK AWAY FROM THE LAKES. THE MELTING SNOW WILL WARRANT GIVING PAUSE
ON SUCH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF RECENT HI RES
SOLUTIONS, A FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO NUDGE AFTERNOON TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES.
A BRIEF DURATION OF GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TIED TO A SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THUMB LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WARRANTING THE CURRENT LOW CHANCE
POPS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SE MI ARE MOST FAVORED TO BE LOCALLY DENSE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES WHERE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN AND
WIND IS CALM. MELTING SNOW OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS ALSO KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIMED WITH MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN FOG AND HAZE
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SW WIND INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE THEN ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE MIDWEST. PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE IS WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO WITH A MORE SUBTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE WAVE ENSURES ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK REACHABLE EVEN WITH A GREATER CLOUD
COMPONENT COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE CLOUDS ARE WITHIN A RIDGE OF
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOME ADEQUATE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO GRAZE THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB, HOWEVER THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS FARTHER NORTH WHERE COMBINED SHORT WAVE
SUPPORT IS GREATER. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE THROUGH SE MI TO THE OHIO BORDER
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE HELD MORE IN CHECK TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COMPONENT ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WIND WHICH
COMBINE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE INCREASING TO MID 40S INTERIOR WEST OF I-75/US-23. THE NEW
16/00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAINTENANCE OF DRY
WEATHER OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM ACTIVATES THE STALLED FRONT IN TEXTBOOK FASHION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW GROWS TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL DATA INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REACHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A GENEROUS SUPPLY OF GULF MODIFIED AIR TO FEED AN
ALL RAIN EVENT FOR SE MI. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES IN THE MODEL
TREATMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TRACK OR EVOLUTION WHICH
MAINTAINS SIMILAR QPF EXPECTATIONS TO THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
STRONG TRANSPORT OF GULF MODIFIED AIR FOCUSED INTO THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI RESULTS IN HIGHER END RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC AND AI RUNS OFFER A
FAIRLY COHERENT QPF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THUMB AND TRI CITIES WHERE TOTALS REACH
THE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT QUICKLY
CUTS OFF ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN THUMB IS ALSO
STILL SLIGHTLY VULNERABLE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT
ONSET, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AS RAINFALL RATE PEAKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM SURGES MORE STRONGLY INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF I-69 BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS IS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACH THE LOWER 60S. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL SPREAD SHOWING UP ON
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT RESULTING IN A RANGE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHERN THUMB TO LOWER 60S
OHIO BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A PAUSE IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LARGER SCALE
WAVE THAT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY ON A TRACK
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHERE IT
MERGES WITH THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
LONGER RANGE MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN OCCLUSION OVER LOWER MI THAT
FAVORS RAIN AT ONSET CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE SYSTEM
PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THEN DROP BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID/LATE FEBRUARY READINGS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH WIND
AHEAD OF IT ORGANIZING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KT.
THE FRONT PASSES OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN, THEN WIND SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDES TONIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH MAINTAINS BENIGN
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS LAKE HURON, WITH ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FAVORING A WINDOW FROM DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
RAIN IN THE SOUTH, SNOW IN THE NORTH, AND WINTRY MIX IN BETWEEN. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY EASTERLY WIND.
HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A REINFORCING SURGE OF WARM AIR
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25" TO LOCALLY 1"
DURING THE TIME FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO ABOUT NOON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
REGIONS, CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK THAT HAS A SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
ANALYSIS RANGING BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1". THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND
SNOW MELT ON FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
DRAINS COULD BE BLOCKED BY SNOW AND/OR WINTER DEBRIS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......TF
HYDROLOGY....BT
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