547
FXUS63 KDTX 162015
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS ON SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN NORTH OF M 46.
- A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TEMPERATURE DROP
BACK TOWARD MID/LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSED NORTHERN LOWER MI
TODAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF THE THUMB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
DRIVEN AN AXIS OF WARM LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SE MI. ENOUGH DIURNAL
MIXING HAS OCCURRED TODAY TO DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL TRACK EAST OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. WEAKENING OF THE SFC FLOW,
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS TUESDAY
HIGHS A BIT IN RELATION TO TODAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S
(30S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE).
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUES NIGHT AND
ACROSS LOWER MI WEDNESDAY. EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL PROCEED THIS WAVE, AIDED BY THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 160 KNOT UPPER JET. THE ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN. WET
BULB COOLING WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES
TUES NIGHT. THIS WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE
AREAS. GIVEN THE SURGE OF WARM AIR, THE RISK FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
A GLAZE OF ICING LOOKS MINIMAL. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL DRYING TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ELONGATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS AND THE ICY WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT INTO SE MI WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SECONDARY WAVE
EMERGING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PROVING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN. SEASONALLY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO SE MI FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MARINE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXIT INTO ONTARIO OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PUSHES INTO LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHILE A STRONG INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK CAPS GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A DEFORMATION AXIS THAT SPLITS FLOW
FROM NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE HURON TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS UPSTREAM CAUSING
WINDS TO ORGANIZE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LOCALLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE WARM FRONT EXPAND ACROSS THE
WATERWAYS WEDNESDAY, BUT ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO MIX DOWN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET
WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF STURGEON POINT AS
EASTERLY GUSTS REACH 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MARINE AREAS SOUTH OF STURGEON POINT LIKELY SEE RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTRY MIX TO THE NORTH.
NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED WIND POTENTIAL COMES FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE,
SUGGESTING LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-95 AND LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH NORTH. THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK THAT HAS A SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS RANGING
BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1". THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT ON FROZEN
GROUND MAY LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS COULD BE
BLOCKED BY SNOW AND/OR WINTER DEBRIS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
AVIATION...
MORNING FOG HAS MIXED OUT, AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON (AOA 10 KNOTS) WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN SITES. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW SINKS SOUTH. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, CONTINUED SNOW MELT
TODAY, AND ELEVATED DEW PTS (ABOVE 32 DEGREES) WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IF WE GET
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR OR HOLD MAINLY IN MVFR, AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A MID
DECK OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, WHICH ARGUES
AGAINST DENSE FOG. HOWEVER, THERE ARE EVEN A FEW SOLUTIONS INDICATING
ENOUGH SATURATION DOWN LOW TO PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TAFS. ACROSS THE NORTH/MBS, THERE IS MODEST LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG. WENT WITH LOW MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE
VERY LEAST AND ALLOWED FOR THE POTENTIAL BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TAFS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CIG/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
* LOW FOR CIG AOA 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....SC
AVIATION.....SF
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