572
FXUS63 KDTX 170447
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1147 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS ON SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN NORTH OF M 46.
- A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TEMPERATURE DROP
BACK TOWARD MID/LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO EASE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOTABLE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD DURING THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. THIS OCCURS AS VISIBILITY AGAIN DIPS WITHIN PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MAY MITIGATE A GREATER
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF DENSE FOG, BUT EXPECTATION AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION, EXPANSION REGION
OF LOWER STATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE MAINLY MBS WITH A PERIOD OF VERY LOW
STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING. ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL PROVE SLOW
TO LIFT AND SCATTER TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND EMERGING FROM THE
EAST TUESDAY. RENEWED EXPANSION OF LOWERS STRATUS EXPECTED WITHIN
MOISTENING EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT, WITH RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CIG/VSBY BELOW 200FT AND/OR 1/2SM LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
* LOW FOR CIG AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSED NORTHERN LOWER MI
TODAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF THE THUMB
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
DRIVEN AN AXIS OF WARM LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SE MI. ENOUGH DIURNAL
MIXING HAS OCCURRED TODAY TO DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL TRACK EAST OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. WEAKENING OF THE SFC FLOW,
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS TUESDAY
HIGHS A BIT IN RELATION TO TODAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S
(30S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE).
AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUES NIGHT AND
ACROSS LOWER MI WEDNESDAY. EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL PROCEED THIS WAVE, AIDED BY THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 160 KNOT UPPER JET. THE ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN. WET
BULB COOLING WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES
TUES NIGHT. THIS WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE
AREAS. GIVEN THE SURGE OF WARM AIR, THE RISK FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
A GLAZE OF ICING LOOKS MINIMAL. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL DRYING TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ELONGATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS AND THE ICY WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT INTO SE MI WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SECONDARY WAVE
EMERGING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PROVING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN. SEASONALLY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO SE MI FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MARINE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXIT INTO ONTARIO OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PUSHES INTO LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING WHILE A STRONG INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK CAPS GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A DEFORMATION AXIS THAT SPLITS FLOW
FROM NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE HURON TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS UPSTREAM CAUSING
WINDS TO ORGANIZE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LOCALLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE WARM FRONT EXPAND ACROSS THE
WATERWAYS WEDNESDAY, BUT ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO MIX DOWN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET
WINDS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF STURGEON POINT AS
EASTERLY GUSTS REACH 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MARINE AREAS SOUTH OF STURGEON POINT LIKELY SEE RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WINTRY MIX TO THE NORTH.
NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED WIND POTENTIAL COMES FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE,
SUGGESTING LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-95 AND LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH NORTH. THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TOP OF A
MELTING SNOWPACK THAT HAS A SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS RANGING
BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1". THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT ON FROZEN
GROUND MAY LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS COULD BE
BLOCKED BY SNOW AND/OR WINTER DEBRIS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page