990
FXUS63 KDTX 172018
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
318 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED ALONG SHORELINES AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ST CLAIR THROUGH THE DAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALL RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF M 46. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVES IN BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TEMPERATURE DROP
BACK TOWARD MID/LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FOR BULK OF ALL INLAND AREAS, SO HAVE
EXPIRED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY. SATELLITE VIEW STILL INDICATES
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE LAKE SHORES OF LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST.
CLAIR WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE STATIONARY FRONT
HAS SETTLED AROUND THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING SNOW PACK OFFERING VARIABLE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS WITH LOWER SNOW DEPTH AND LIMITED
COVERAGE OF FOG FROM EARLIER HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER RIDGE.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING ORGANIZED IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH AIDE OF THE 170 KNOT SOUTHERN STREAM JET THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION WITHIN
A REGION OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS REGION SENDING PWATS
TOWARDS 1.00 INCH. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE
FRONTAL SLOPE AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEGINNING TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AROUND
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN TO FOGGY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
TOMORROW BEFORE COMING TO AN END AROUND 11 AM. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS REACH A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENT. A FEW HOURS OF AT OR A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE NORTHERN THUMB AND BAY/MIDLAND
COUNTY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, SO THE
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS RELATIVELY SHORT AND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO RISE TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
REMAINS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP. ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOCATIONS THAT CAN STAY AT FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A LONGER DURATION THAN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADJUSTMENT TO ICING POTENTIAL AND MORE ENHANCED
MESSAGING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY MID-
LATE TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN THE INCREASED SBCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN. A SOLID WARM
SECTOR BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER WHILE A FEW HI-RES
MODELS DEPICT THE WARM FRONT/OCCLUSION STALLING OUT AROUND THE I-69
CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD BRING A SOLID NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LOWER 60S UP TOWARDS THE
DETROIT METRO AREA AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.
OCCLUDED LOW HANGS OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE NEXT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW GENERATES
THE NEXT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. LOWER POPS ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT
BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS 6-7 PM ON
THURSDAY. THIS LOW THEN OCCLUDES OVER THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND, THE STRETCH OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME CRASHING BACK DOWN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR MID/LATE FEBRUARY.
MARINE
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT LAYER OF MARINE FOG
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
HURON, AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND ST.
CLAIR. THE EXPECTATION FOR NORTHERN HURON IS THAT INCREASING
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD HELP MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER EARLIER, BUT IF
THAT FAILS TO MATERIALIZE, AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING.
WINDS ORGANIZE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TIME AS
THE MATURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURON BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERWAYS. A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICS ENSUES
THURSDAY, FAVORING HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO GALES OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON FRIDAY
MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. MODERATE
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25" TO 0.5" OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ALONG THE M-59
CORRIDOR AND MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5" TO 0.75" ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF I-69. THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK THAT
HAD A SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS RANGING BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1". THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT ON FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS COULD BE BLOCKED BY SNOW AND/OR
WINTER DEBRIS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
AVIATION...
AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF FOG EXTENDING ACROSS LAKES HURON, ST CLAIR,
CNTL LAKE ERIE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS WITHIN A STRONGLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED BY A DEEP INVERSION. WEAK LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO DRIVE THE FOG INLAND. THE
INLAND EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL HEATING.
THIS SUGGESTS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MAY CONTINUE TO BE KDET DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND KMBS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO SAGINAW
BAY. LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT ORGANIZES JUST SOUTH OF METRO DETROIT. THIS WILL LIKELY
DRIVE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OFF THE LAKES BACK ACROSS THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN AN INBOUND UPPER
SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF METRO DETROIT LATE WED
MORNING. PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND FOG IS THUS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW...THE FOG EXTENDING INTO METRO DETROIT EXTENDS BACK TO NORTH
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL MIXING WILL OFFER SOME DEGREE OF
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING THIS EVENING IS HOWEVER LIKELY TO DRIVE THE FOG AND LOWER
CLOUDS BACK INTO METRO AIRPORT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN TONIGHT.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443-
462>464.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ361>363.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AA
AVIATION.....SC
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