264
FXUS63 KDTX 181157
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AVIATION
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO BORDER DICTATES AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
OBSERVED AS OF 12Z WILL FILL IN TO IFR WITH BORDERLINE LIFR AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS CATCHES UP FROM THE WEST. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT WITH PREDICTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ANY ONE
TERMINAL LOCATION. RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT AND OCCLUSION SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS LOWER MI.
THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE MBS AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT/OCCLUSION IS
SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY EVEN STALL OVERHEAD. FARTHER SOUTH, WIND
BECOMES SW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. A
CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AS SURFACE
FRONTAL REMNANTS LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FOR DTW... IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY SOLIDIFY THIS MORNING AS A
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WHILE THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO BORDER. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
FOLLOWED BY RAPID CEILING AND VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM
THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN THIS MORNING.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
DISCUSSION...
SLOW PROGRESSION OF AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MN HAS
BROUGHT MULTIPLE RIBBONS OF PRECIPITATION TO SE MI TIED TO ENHANCED
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS. THESE INITIAL
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE DYNAMICALLY ENHANCED
SECOND ROUND, LEADING TO SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES PARTICULARLY
FOR THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. ELONGATION OF THE JET STREAM INTO THE
NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP INDUCE A STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE UNDER ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHILE A TRIALING
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PIVOTS INTO SE
MI, LEADING TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL RATES. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DISJOINTED FROM PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO LOWER END
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOLDING AROUND 7C/KM.
ALL RAIN TO ABRUPTLY END THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SURFACE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE CWA,
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND GREATER PORTION OF THE
THUMB, AND POSSIBLY STALLING FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TUSCOLA/LAPEER/ST. CLAIR. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL BE STARK ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT, WITH HIGHS MAKING A PUSH TOWARDS
60 (CLOSER TO THE MI/OH BORDER, WHERE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO PUSH OUT
OF THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LATE DAY MIXING
ALSO BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOW-END
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE REGION. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE STEERING INTO LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BY FRIDAY, OCCLUDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PROJECTED PATH OF THIS
LOW WILL KEEP SE MI WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WRAP COLD
AIR FROM THE PLAINS AROUND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM,
WHICH PENDING TIMING OF THIS CAA, COULD BRING DECREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AS
STRONGER MIXING DEPTHS INTERACT WITH THE LLJ ALOFT, BRINGING THE
CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS 35-40 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
COLDER TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD TO START THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD ALONG
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS DERIVED FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT
UNDER THE GREATER TROUGH STRUCTURE.
MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST. CLAIR, IN THE ABSENCE
OF MEANINGFUL DRYING MECHANISMS. WINDS MAINLY PERSIST OUT OF THE
EAST WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERWAYS COULD FLIP SOUTHWESTERLY GIVEN OTHER SURFACE PRESSURE
ADJUSTMENTS. AN ENERGETIC LOW-LEVEL JET (+45 KNOTS AT 925 MB) IS
MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE MATURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MINNESOTA. THIS SUPPORTS GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE HURON BASIN TODAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERWAYS.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FURTHER SOUTH. A BRIEF
LULL IN DYNAMICS ENSUES THURSDAY, FAVORING HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF GUSTS TO GALES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON FRIDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING, THE HEAVIEST WHICH WILL FALL ACROSS
THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. RAIN TO ABRUPTLY END BY THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN A
HALF-INCH UP TO BELOW 1" NORTH OF I-69. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH,
RAINFALL TOTALS HOLD TO A HALF-INCH OR LESS, WITH AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER- INCH OR LESS CLOSER TO THE MI/OH BORDER. THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK THAT HAD A SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT ANALYSIS RANGING BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1". THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SNOW MELT ON FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO RISES ON AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS COULD BE BLOCKED BY SNOW AND/OR WINTER
DEBRIS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page