202
FXUS63 KDTX 182025
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE WARM SECTOR TO THE 998MB SURFACE LOW NEAR MINNEAPOLIS MN HAS
BEEN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. STUBBORN NEAR SURFACE
STRATUS BELOW 1.0 KFT AGL HAS PROVIDED MIXED RESULTS ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THUS FAR. AN IMPULSE TIED TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 21-00Z LEADING TO A TOTAL OCCLUSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
PLAN VIEW PERSPECTIVE OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT A REINTRODUCTION OF
MOISTURE AT OR AROUND 4.0 KFT AGL COULD RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL
MUCAPE (UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG) AND A SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE SHOWER OR
THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE 23-01Z TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
THIS MOISTURE/SATURATION IS SUGGESTED WITHIN A LAYER THAT WILL BE
VERY DRY FROM ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDLEVELS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT CAPPING AND CIN WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF DEEPER
SUSTAINED LIFT. INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP 30% FOR AREAS NORTH OF
METRO DETROIT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. IF A DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELL
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATE TONIGHT SUPPORTS A MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST DATA SHOWS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY WITH
VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE/ABSOLUTE VORTICITY DEEPENING OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. ORIENTATION OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH
TRAJECTORY OF THE INBOUND VORT MAX SUGGESTS THAT BEST THERMAL
ADVECTIONS AND THETAE SUPPORT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TO POINTS EASTWARD. PERIODS OF WARM/THETAE ADVECTION WITH
FRONTOGENESIS IS SET FOR MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST
NBM 5.0 QMD SHOWS RELATIVELY MODEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH HIGHER VARIANCE
FOR THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.3
INCH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT AN 0.8 TO 0.4 OF INCH. WITH BETTER
FRONTAL FORCING, THE TRI CITIES REGION MAY OBSERVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE FORECASTED TRAJECTORY OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND MEAN FLOW BRINGS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS FREQUENT
WINDS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE LAST OF ANY OCCLUSION AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RETURN
OF COLDER AIR INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND LIGHT
SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE ICE COVERED LAKES WIND DIRECTION WILL MAKE ALL OF THE
DIFFERENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
MARINE
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE MARINE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR STRUGGLES TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
TONIGHT, VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SLOWER SPEEDS OVER LAKE ST.
CLAIR AND WESTERN ERIE, COMPARED TO THE HURON BASIN. THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING NORTH OF STURGEON POINT WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AXIS LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF LULL IN
DYNAMICS ENSUES THURSDAY AS COMPETING SYSTEMS INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FAVORS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AN ACCELERATED LOW-LEVEL JET (+40
KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON ON
FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PLAINS WAVE DEEPENS AND EJECTS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
GUSTS TO GALES, THEREFORE A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LHZ361
AND LHZ362. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MORE ROUNDS OF
RAIN, AND EVEN SOME SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN WATERWAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
AVIATION...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ARCED FROM GRAND RAPIDS-LANSING-
MONROE AT THE START OF THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO CANADA. WHILE THE ENE FLOW OFF THE LAKES
PROVIDES SOME INHIBITION FOR THE FRONT LIFTING DEEPER INTO SE MI,
EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MBS HOLDS ON THE FRINGE OF THE FRONT
WITH MODEL TRENDS FAVORING IT STALLING OVERHEAD OR SOUTH MAINTAINING
EASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER MVFR CLOUD COVER INTO THE EVENING.
SATELLITE HAS SHOWN HEALTHY CLEARING POST-FRONT AS DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOW SUPPORTING A FEW HOURS OF BKN MVFR CEILINGS
TURNING CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR GOING INTO TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST
ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MAINTAINED INHERITED VSBY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER DID HEDGE TOWARDS
DENSER FOG TOWARDS THE DETROIT TERMINALS GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW BEING FAVORABLE TO DRAW IN FOG OFF LAKES ERIE/ST CLAIR.
FOR DTW... LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT HERE AT MIDDAY.
THIS LOW CLOUD/FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY TREND TOWARDS BROKEN 1-2KFT CLOUD
AND DISSIPATING FOG WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH. DRIER AIR FOLLOWING SUPPORTS VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKES ST CLAIR
AND ERIE.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON, LOW BY EARLY EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....KDK
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