935
FXUS63 KDTX 190501
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RENEWED CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI FROM BIG RAPIDS TO
OWOSSO TO DETROIT AND HAS MOVED LITTLE THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DENSE FOG HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MORNING. THERE IS A LITTLE FLUCTUATION DOWN
TO 1/8SM AND UP TO 1/2SM BUT WILL GO WITH 1/4SM UNTIL A STRONGER
SIGNAL ONE WAY OR ANOTHER APPEARS. CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBYS
AND CIGS ARRIVES THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE THE NEXT RAIN
CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE OUT OF IA WILL GIVE A FEW CHANCES
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS BANDS OF RAIN EMANATE UP THE FRONTAL
SLOPE. THE FIRST COMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND PREVAILING OVERNIGHT WITH THE NIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH
THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
FOR DTW...DENSE FOG WILL CARRY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL HOLD OUT OF THE SE WITH
A COUPLE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM TONIGHT.
LOW FOR THURSDAY.
* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF ALL RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS LOWER MI FROM ABOUT
LUDINGTON TO LANSING TO MONROE THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO HOLD THERE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING INVERSION TRAPS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
CONTINUED SNOW MELT, MORNING RAIN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOME. OBSERVATIONS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1/4SM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
EXCLUDING LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES SO WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING 15 COUNTIES. IF DENSE FOG SPREADS FURTHER
SOUTH WE CAN ADD THEM IN LATER AS NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SECTOR TO THE 998MB SURFACE LOW NEAR MINNEAPOLIS MN HAS
BEEN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. STUBBORN NEAR SURFACE
STRATUS BELOW 1.0 KFT AGL HAS PROVIDED MIXED RESULTS ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THUS FAR. AN IMPULSE TIED TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 21-00Z LEADING TO A TOTAL OCCLUSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
PLAN VIEW PERSPECTIVE OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT A REINTRODUCTION OF
MOISTURE AT OR AROUND 4.0 KFT AGL COULD RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL
MUCAPE (UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG) AND A SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE SHOWER OR
THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE 23-01Z TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
THIS MOISTURE/SATURATION IS SUGGESTED WITHIN A LAYER THAT WILL BE
VERY DRY FROM ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDLEVELS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT CAPPING AND CIN WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF DEEPER
SUSTAINED LIFT. INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP 30% FOR AREAS NORTH OF
METRO DETROIT AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. IF A DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELL
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY.
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATE TONIGHT SUPPORTS A MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST DATA SHOWS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY WITH
VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE/ABSOLUTE VORTICITY DEEPENING OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. ORIENTATION OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH
TRAJECTORY OF THE INBOUND VORT MAX SUGGESTS THAT BEST THERMAL
ADVECTIONS AND THETAE SUPPORT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND
TO POINTS EASTWARD. PERIODS OF WARM/THETAE ADVECTION WITH
FRONTOGENESIS IS SET FOR MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST
NBM 5.0 QMD SHOWS RELATIVELY MODEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH HIGHER VARIANCE
FOR THE THU/FRI SYSTEM WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.3
INCH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT AN 0.8 TO 0.4 OF INCH. WITH BETTER
FRONTAL FORCING, THE TRI CITIES REGION MAY OBSERVE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE FORECASTED TRAJECTORY OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM AND MEAN FLOW BRINGS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS FREQUENT
WINDS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE LAST OF ANY OCCLUSION AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RETURN
OF COLDER AIR INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND LIGHT
SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE ICE COVERED LAKES WIND DIRECTION WILL MAKE ALL OF THE
DIFFERENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.
MARINE...
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE MARINE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR STRUGGLES TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS DECREASE A BIT
TONIGHT, VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SLOWER SPEEDS OVER LAKE ST.
CLAIR AND WESTERN ERIE, COMPARED TO THE HURON BASIN. THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING NORTH OF STURGEON POINT WILL EXPIRE ON TIME AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AXIS LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF LULL IN
DYNAMICS ENSUES THURSDAY AS COMPETING SYSTEMS INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FAVORS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AN ACCELERATED LOW-LEVEL JET (+40
KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON ON
FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PLAINS WAVE DEEPENS AND EJECTS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
GUSTS TO GALES, THEREFORE A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LHZ361
AND LHZ362. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MORE ROUNDS OF
RAIN, AND EVEN SOME SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN WATERWAYS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......DRK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KGK
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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