278
FXUS63 KDTX 191157
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SE MI UNTIL NOON.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE
FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A DOMINATING FACTOR ACROSS THE SE MI
TERMINAL CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE IS STALLED
OVER THE AREA WHILE SUPPORTING A MOISTURE LADEN SURFACE LAYER UNDER
A SHARP INVERSION IN SUPPORT OF A WIDESPREAD COMBINATION OF LIFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY. THE SETUP WILL BE PERSISTENT AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE AWAITING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDES THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHERN IN AND NW OHIO AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DTW CORRIDOR AROUND 14Z. PREDICTABILITY IS
LOW ON THUNDERSTORM PERSISTENCE, HOWEVER AT LEAST SCATTERED HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SURVIVE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PAUSE IN RAIN SHOWERS
UNTIL THEY RAMP UP AGAIN THIS EVENING. FLIGHT CATEGORY GRINDS UP
INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL UNTIL TRENDING BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING. THIS OCCURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE MERGING AND INTENSIFYING THE
FRONTAL ZONE. THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH LOWER MI WITH A STRONG
OCCLUSION FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW... LIFR IN FOG AND LOW CEILING PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
IN ADDITION, UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE IN/NW OH ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR NORTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD DTW DURING THE MID MORNING
PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
BREAK IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM
THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF ALL RAIN.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION WILL
MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE FOG OVER ALL OF SE MI THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1/4 MI TO 3/4 MI.
DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INVERSION WEAKENS BUT HOLDS UNDER INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MORE MURKY CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS
AND PATCHY MIST. GIVEN PRETTY INEFFICIENT MECHANISMS TO ERODE FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 12PM AND WILL LET NEAR-TERM TRENDS DICTATE THE NEED FOR ANY
EARLY CANCELLATION OR EXTENSION. DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE ALSO BEEN
LOWERED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THINKING IS THAT DENSE FOG
LIFTING TO STRATUS WITH AN EAST FLOW COMPONENT WILL HAMPER
MEANINGFUL TEMPERATURE INCREASES TODAY, HOLDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR THE INTERIOR THROUGH FLINT AND
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-CITIES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 40S, WHERE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR AFTERNOON CLEARING RESIDES.
RENEWED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY GIVEN
THE EARLY MORNING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH HAS
SPAWNED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ON TRACK TO TRAVEL INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE HURON DOWN TO A SEASONABLY
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE AROUND 990MB WITH OCCLUSION TAKING PLACE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
BUT TWO MAIN WINDOWS FOR BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE ARRIVED OVERHEAD.
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION THIS
GRADIENT/STALLED LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, BUT CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENHANCE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS, INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN WEAKER MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-250 J/KG.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ACCELERATE THE COLDER AIR SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAIN INTO MICHIGAN, THE COLDEST OF WHICH WILL BE FOUND ON
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WRAPPING AROUND LAKE
MICHIGAN BEFORE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES TO DROP
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH STEEPER ACCELERATION FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA WHERE THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY RESIDES. THIS COLDER
AIR WILL ALSO BE TIED TO THE STRONGER LLJ WHICH LINES UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONGER MOMENTUM
RESERVOIR BRINGS GUST POTENTIAL OF 40-45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH DAMPENED POTENTIAL (~30-35 MPH) CLOSER TO THE TRI-
CITIES AND THUMB AS IMPROVED MIXING DEPTHS BISECT THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALSO BRING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO CARVE INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL REINFORCE COLDER AIR, THE COLDEST OF WHICH
ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -12C.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM GLANCING
SHORTWAVES. COLDER TEMPERATURES LAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE MARINE FOG WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICS
ENSUES TODAY AS COMPETING SYSTEMS INTERFACE BETWEEN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HOLD FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WITH SLOWER SPEEDS OVER LAKE ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN ERIE,
COMPARED TO THE HURON BASIN. AN ACCELERATED LOW-LEVEL JET (+40
KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON ON
FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN PLAINS WAVE DEEPENS AND EJECTS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF GUSTS
TO GALES FOR LHZ361 AND LHZ362, THEREFORE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN WATERWAYS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LHZ363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-
362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
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